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久联发展(002037)深度报告:背靠保利 民爆业务整合平台

海通證券 ·  Jul 25, 2015 00:00  · Researches

  Guizhou folk explosion leader. Jiulian Development currently has an explosives production capacity of 199,000 tons/year. In the 2013 ranking of the gross domestic product of production enterprises in the explosion industry, Jiulian Development ranked fourth among manufacturing enterprises in the country and number one in Guizhou Province. In terms of industrial explosives production and industrial detonator production, the two most important indicators of civilian explosive equipment manufacturers, the company ranked 3rd and 13th in the country, respectively, and is in a leading position in the industry. The business expanded nationwide. In 2007, the company established the holding subsidiary Gansu Jiulian Minbang Co., Ltd. through asset acquisition and merger, and the company's Minbang business expanded to Gansu Province. In 2012, the company acquired part of the shares of Henan Shenwei Company, and the company expanded its civilian explosion business to Henan Province. At the end of 2012, the company set up a subsidiary in Tibet. Jiulian's development business is gradually expanding nationwide. The civilian explosion industry in the west continues to develop. Under the Western Development Strategy, the growth rate of fixed asset investment in the western region is higher than the national average, thus driving the increase in popular demand in the western region. Furthermore, the implementation of the “Belt and Road” strategy will also drive economic growth in the western region. Jiulian Development's main business is located in western provinces such as Guizhou and Gansu, and future performance growth is guaranteed. Backed by Poly, it is a platform for integrating the civil explosion business of central enterprises. In 2014, Poly Group joined Jiulian Development and became its actual controller, and the controlling shareholder of Jiulian Development changed to Poly Jiulian Group. Poly Jiulian Group plans to complete the integration of Panhua Group's Minbang assets by the end of 2015, and plans to inject Panhua Group and the rest of the Minbang assets under the Poli Jiulian Group (100% of Poly Chemical's shares, 70% of Yinguang Minbang's shares, and 50.6% of Liminbang's shares) into Jiulian Development in an appropriate manner. Jiulian Development will become an integrated platform for the Poly Group's civilian explosion business. After the above asset integration is completed, Jiulian Development's explosives production capacity will increase to 442,500 tons/year. Profit forecasting and investment ratings. We believe that, benefiting from the development of the western region and the “Belt and Road” policy, fixed asset investment in Guizhou and the western region will maintain high growth in the next few years, and the civilian explosion industry in the western region will continue to develop rapidly, and Jiulian Development will benefit from this. Furthermore, as the Poly Group enters Jiulian and Jiulian Development will become an integrated platform for Minbang assets under the Poly Group. It is expected to become a leading Minbang enterprise nationwide, and overseas business will gradually expand. We expect the company's EPS for 2015-2017 to be 0.53, 0.81, and 1.11 yuan, respectively (based on the total share capital of 509 million shares after the completion of this increase). According to 2016 EPS and 55 times PE, we gave the company a target price of 44.55 yuan, giving it an “increase in weight” investment rating. Risk warning: (1) Uncertainty of blasting engineering orders. (2) The risk of a sharp rise in the price of ammonium nitrate. (3) Asset injection progress falls short of expectations. (4) Overseas business expansion falls short of expectations.

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