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安源煤业(600397):传统主业惨淡 未来发展动力来自转型和改革

民生證券 ·  Jul 17, 2015 00:00  · Researches

Traditional performance is poor, and there is plenty of momentum for transformation. Affected by the continued downturn in the coal market, Anyuan Coal's Q1 net profit in 2015 was only 930,000 yuan, down 72% year on year. In the future, the company will stabilize the main coal production business, actively expand the coal and material distribution business, improve the quality of coal and mine trade; cooperate with coal e-commerce platforms and actively lay out coal logistics business. Currently, the company has coal storage centers in northern Jiangxi, China, and the West, and the Jiujiang coal reserve center under construction will be put into operation in March 2016. There are expectations for asset injection to promote the integration of coal and electricity and the development of clean energy. The group company Jiangxi Energy Group Co., Ltd. was renamed and formed from the former Jiangxi Coal Group Corporation in 2014, transforming from a single coal business to a large-scale coal, electricity and gas integrated energy enterprise. The group's Kengkou power plant, photovoltaic project, and coal-to-water gas are in the early stages of research, and there are expectations that it will be injected into listed companies for incubation in the future. Construction of the Xinyu coal-electricity integration project began in cooperation with Datang; the company is also actively tracking the shale oil and gas project. Future development core: e-commerce platform+internet financing+supply chain finance. Join hands with Pan Asia to establish the Jiangxi Coal Trading Center to deeply integrate the coal supply chain with the Internet, build an e-commerce platform, a comprehensive financial service platform and an investment platform, and build a P2S Internet finance platform by utilizing the risk control concept of supply chain finance. With advantages such as Pan-Asian customer resources and technology platforms, plus the state-owned enterprise of Anyuan Coal and its background as the largest producer in Jiangxi, the trading center is expected to expand rapidly. The future will benefit from the reform of state-owned enterprises and the development of the Yangtze River Economic Belt. As the only listing platform and energy sector development platform under Jiangxi Energy Group, the state-owned enterprise reform will greatly improve the resource allocation capacity of the Anyuan coal industry. Jiujiang is the company's future coal reserve center, and the future may benefit the development of the Yangtze River Economic Belt. Risk warning: E-commerce platform construction falls short of expectations; coal prices continue to decline. Profit forecast and investment suggestions: Without considering e-commerce platform business, the company's 2015-2017 EPS is estimated to be 0.06 yuan, 0.04 yuan, and 0.07 yuan, corresponding PE is 100 times, 177 times, and 88 times, respectively. Considering that the coal trading center can thicken the company's EPS by 0.01 yuan, 0.04 yuan, and 0.08 yuan, EPS reached 0.07 yuan, 0.08 yuan, and 0.15 yuan, corresponding to PE 91 times, 80 times, and 43 times. Referring to Panjiang Shares, which is also the largest manufacturer in the province and has themes of state-owned enterprise reform and e-commerce platforms, the current PB is 4.28 times, and Anyuan Coal's latest net assets per share are 3.54. The reasonable valuation of Anyuan Coal Industry is estimated to be 15-16 yuan, giving it a “highly recommended” rating.

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