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广东明珠(600382):陌上花正开 明珠始璀璨

國泰君安 ·  Aug 5, 2015 00:00  · Researches

Guide to this report: The company's first-level land development project in Xingning City will provide stable cash flow and performance in the future. The increase in the equity ratio of major shareholders (including those acting in concert) means an increase in endogenous motivation. The company also has a high margin of safety and high elasticity. Investment points: First-time coverage gives an increase in holdings rating. It is predicted that the company's 2015/16 EPS will be 0.39 and 1.63 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 84% (due to one-off earnings from government compensation in 2014) and an increase of 316%, respectively. As the only listing platform for investment by Jin Xin'an, the majority shareholders' shareholding ratio will increase to 42.4% after a fixed increase, so future collaborative development can be expected. At the same time, the first-level land development project in Xingning City will provide the company with continuous cash flow and performance, and provide a solid foundation for subsequent business transformation and upgrading. For the first time, coverage gave the company a rating to increase its holdings. The target price is 22 yuan, corresponding to 13.5 times PE in 2016, and there is 62% room compared to the current price. First-level development business increased performance, and major shareholders' real money subscriptions boosted momentum. Demand for urban expansion in Xingning City continues to grow. The company actively participated in first-level land development in the southern new town, and is expected to contribute an average of 2.8 billion yuan in land concession revenue over the next five years. At the same time, it will also accumulate experience in the PPP cooperation model with the government, laying the foundation for obtaining larger first-level land development projects in the future; along with the implementation of the company's fixed increase plan, major shareholders (including those acting in concert) fully subscribed to 2 billion dollars, optimizing the equity structure, and further improving control, which is conducive to the enhancement of internal vitality in the future. The valuation safety margin is high, and Davis is on the verge of double-clicking. The majority shareholders decided to increase the participation price by 15 yuan. Currently, the stock price is only 13.30 yuan, and the margin of safety is sufficient. The company's PE in 2016 was only 8 times, a drop of nearly 50% compared to the previous high, and experienced a full change of hands at the bottom. At the same time, in the post-cycle era of the real estate industry, companies are also actively seeking the next growth point other than first-level land development, and subsequent transformation is imperative. The expansion of emerging industries is expected to boost the company's current low valuation level. First-level development business will boost performance growth, and Davis is about to double click. Risk warning: There is some uncertainty about major shareholders' collaborative development and first-level land development business.

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