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黑牡丹(600510)中报点评:基建、开发、产投和纺织业务齐头并进

海通證券 ·  Aug 18, 2015 00:00  · Researches

incident. The company announced its 2015 semi-annual report. During the reporting period, the company achieved operating income of 2.41 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 32.2%; net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 131 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 26.8%; and basic earnings per share of 0.17 yuan. In the first half of 2015, the company's revenue and net profit declined by 32% and 26.8%, respectively, due to reduced settlement and trade in textile raw materials. Infrastructure, real estate development, industrial investment, and textile business go hand in hand. In the first half of 2015, the company completed 88,900 square meters of Mudanxianglong Garden and completed the construction of 34,800 square meters of Xinqiao Junior High School on its behalf (in preparation for inspection). The 10,000-hectare farmland project, infrastructure construction phase 1.1 and phase 1.2 have been completed. In the first half of the year, construction of 210,000 square meters of housing and supporting public construction on plot 01 of Wanhe City, a green capital owned by the company, was completed; part of the Suzhou Lanting Peninsula Living Plaza Project (i.e., the Suzhou Dushu Lake Moon Bay Project) has been completed and is undergoing completion procedures. In the first half of the year, denim fabric production and sales increased significantly compared to the same period last year, and clothing production and sales declined slightly compared to the same period last year; the adjustment of the ERQ (Cowboy Time) business strategy for own-brand clothing is beginning to bear fruit. In the first half of the year, Jixing Technology successfully completed the E round of financing; among the projects invested by the Yixing Fund, Changshu Auto Parts has entered the IPO application approval stage, Getty Power and Creative Information (stock code: 300366) have reached an acquisition agreement, and China Steel's new project has made significant progress in the research and development of nuclear graphite and nuclear graphite powder, and completed a new round of financing. In January, the company set up Zhonghe Investment with the company's participation and management, accounting for 10% of the company; in early July, the Jinrui Carbon Materials Fund, with the company as a limited partner (LP) and a scale of 250 million yuan, was formally established, accounting for 40% of the company. The company introduced two individual shareholders through targeted issuance, and raised 1.6 billion yuan to supplement the company's working capital, of which 600 million yuan was used to repay loans. On August 7, 2015, after implementing the 2014 profit distribution plan, the company adjusted the issue price of non-public shares from no less than 6.44 yuan/share to no less than 6.36 yuan/share; the number issued was adjusted from no more than 248 million shares to no more than 252 million shares. Investment advice. Introduce a fixed increase in individual shareholders, raise capital to enhance development momentum, and maintain the “increase in holdings” rating. The company integrates textiles and clothing, comprehensive urban development, and industrial investment. On behalf of the government, the company is deeply involved in the development of the entire business in New Taipei; the 17.5 square kilometer high-speed rail area and 10,000 hectares of good land projects, which are in the first phase of construction, are progressing smoothly, and the second phase of land development is starting. According to the contract company, it will receive 10% project revenue and a 5:5 share of revenue. Changzhou's housing price-income ratio is low, and the 439-square-kilometer Xinbei District has developed only 1/5, so there is room for expansion in the future. The company promotes the rejuvenation of textiles and clothing through a brand strategy (self-created ERQ jeans brand), and the Bank of Jiangsu, Changshu Auto Parts, etc. it invests in is expected to go public. Therefore, we expect the company's EPS in 2015 and 2016 to be 0.38 and 0.47 yuan respectively, and the corresponding RNAV is 13.7 yuan. As of August 18, the company closed at 14.14 yuan, corresponding to PE of 2015 and 2016, which is 37.2 times and 30.1 times, respectively. Considering that the company's capital raising enhances development momentum, we use 1.1 times the company's RNAV, or 15.1 yuan, as the company's target price for the next 6 months to maintain the “increase in holdings” rating. Risk warning: The industry faces two major risks: interest rate hikes and policy regulation.

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