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安源煤业(600397)研究简报:区域煤炭龙头 转型煤炭供应链平台

國金證券 ·  Aug 12, 2015 00:00  · Researches

Investment logic The main business of the coal business is difficult to operate. The company is actively expanding in the direction of new energy business. It plans to become a large energy integration platform for Jiangxi Province, and expectations for the integration and reform of state-owned enterprises are strong. The company's transformation strategy is clear: using the Jiangxi Coal Trading Center as a platform to develop modern logistics services. Make every effort to promote comprehensive supporting services for transaction intermediation, property rights delivery, transportation agency settlement, financing and credit, and futures trade. The company's transformation into a commodity supply chain service platform is an e-commerce platform with the Jiujiang Reserve Center as the core to accelerate the layout of logistics infrastructure and trading centers. In the second half of 2015, the general terminal and coal storage and distribution plant projects are scheduled to begin trial operation, while the special railway is scheduled to be completed by the end of the year, and the logistics distribution system will be officially put into operation in 2016. The e-commerce platform has an advanced profit model, attracting customers to trade online for free; by designing a more advanced risk control model and introducing a PvP online finance model and bank credit collaboration, the supply chain risk financing problem has been better solved to a certain extent, and the trading center e-commerce platform is expected to start contributing revenue in 2015. Valuation and investment suggestions Since 2015, the average PB-TTM value in the coal sector has been 1.53X, with a 23.12% discount compared to Shanghai and Shenzhen 300, and the highest is 2.21X. We have given the company PB2.00-2.21X, with a target price of 7.06-7.80 yuan. The company's market capitalization is small, and there is an impetus for market value management, involving the Internet+ concept, and the company still has expectations for group asset injection, major energy transformation, and state-owned enterprise reform, and we are optimistic about phased opportunities in the coal sector in the 3rd quarter. We still recommend investors to focus on it. We give the company an “increase” rating. Risk that the A-share market's bullish logic is unsustainable. Investment in infrastructure and real estate fell short of expectations, coal price trends continued to be weaker than expected, supply chain business layout fell short of expectations, supply chain finance development fell short of expectations, and central bank restrictions on third-party payment services.

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