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长荣股份(300195):定增20亿发力“互联网+印刷智造”

中金公司 ·  Aug 24, 2015 00:00  · Researches

The investment proposal takes into account the expected dilution of EPS by 19% after the addition, and we are moving the company out of “confident buying”; however, we are still optimistic about the high growth of the company's cloud printing business and the development prospects of intelligent and international equipment business, and gave it a “recommended” rating. The target price is 34.4 yuan (down 23.5%, corresponding to the 2016 Guilian consolidated table, and diluted EPS40xp/E). The reason is that the company will increase by a large proportion, such as issuing 80 million shares, or diluting EPS by 19%. The company plans to issue no more than 80 million shares on a non-public basis to no more than 5 specific targets, and raise no more than 2 billion yuan in total capital, of which 1.6 billion yuan will be invested in the construction project of a demonstration base for the new intelligent green equipment manufacturing industry, and 400 million yuan for the construction of a new intelligent green printing equipment R&D and innovation base. Committed to overall solutions for smart printers. This investment in green intelligent printing equipment production capacity mainly produces smart printing factory overall solutions, intelligent packaging production lines, green intelligent gravure printers, intelligent large format die-cutting and hot stamping machines, intelligent high-speed die-cutting machines, box gluing production lines, Heidelberg high-end printing equipment components, new printing equipment materials, and intelligent printing factory auxiliary products such as AGV trolleys. Earlier, the company signed a framework agreement with Guilian Holdings, a leading cigarette label printing company. The total procurement amount for intelligent chemical plant renovation over the next three years will not exceed 180 million yuan. Cloud printing: Will usher in an explosion of demand in the era of personalized printing. The company's cloud printing is expected to achieve a profit and loss balance this year. The first half of the year is still a construction process. Actual production only began in the second quarter (achieving revenue of 19.03 million yuan), and most of the business in the third quarter is expected to be a distributor business. The company will begin online promotion in August, and there will still be major revisions to the website, so the cloud printing business is expected to continue to grow rapidly. The profit forecast and valuation kept the profit forecast unchanged. The EPS for 2015/16 was 0.67 and 0.88 yuan respectively, and the corresponding P/E was 47.7X and 36.1X, respectively. The company holds shares in Guilian Holdings and the corresponding EPS in 2014 is about 0.17 yuan. Assuming that profits do not change from 2015 to 16, the company is preparing for the 2015/16 EPS exam of 0.84 and 1.05 yuan. If you consider additional issuance and dilution, the EPS for Guilian's consolidated table is 0.54 and 0.72 yuan, respectively; the EPS for preparing for the exam after considering Guilian's consolidated table and additional distribution is 0.69 and 0.86 yuan, respectively. The recovery of the risk equipment business fell short of expectations, and the promotion of cloud printing fell short of expectations. The GEM index fell sharply during the suspension period, and there is a risk that the company's stock price will make up for the decline.

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