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湖南发展(000722):“湘雅模式”成功典范、轻资产扩张打造康复医疗平台型公司

方正證券 ·  Aug 31, 2015 00:00  · Researches

Key investment points Rehabilitation and medical policy support will be strengthened, and large markets will surely spawn companies with large market capitalization. Rehabilitation medicine in China is still at a low level of development due to a series of reasons such as the supply side (there are relatively few profit points for rehabilitation medicine, hospitals do not pay attention to it) and the demand side (patients don't understand or pay attention to rehabilitation medicine). After the new medical reform, with the gradual increase in policy support for the construction of a three-level service system for rehabilitation medicine, medical insurance payments, and medical treatment with social capital, rehabilitation medicine has gradually become a new hot spot for capital pursuit. We believe that the rehabilitation medical market is huge, and companies with large market capitalization will surely be born in a large market. With the help of the Xiangya Pok Oi Rehabilitation Hospital, Hunan has successfully entered the field of rehabilitation medicine, and the “Xiangya Model” has earned both fame and fortune. The company established a joint venture with Zhou Jianglin to indirectly acquire 49% of Pok Oi Medical's shares, thereby actually controlling the Xiangya Pok Oi Rehabilitation Hospital and successfully entering the field of rehabilitation medicine. The Xiangya Pok Oi Rehabilitation Hospital is directly connected to Xiangya Hospital (obtaining patients recovering from the acute phase). On the one hand, it guarantees the stability of its own disease sources, and on the other hand, it also achieves a win-win situation for medical insurance payers, patients, transfers and discharges (Xiangya Hospital), and national policies. Under the patronage of thousands of people, the profitability of Xiangya Pok Oi Rehabilitation Hospital far exceeds that of ordinary general hospitals (achieving break-even in 2.5 years), and has successfully achieved both fame and fortune. With flagship demonstrations and asset-light expansion, Hunan Development will build a rehabilitation medical platform company. In the field of rehabilitation medicine, the company has established strategies for model replication and asset-light expansion in other regions of Hunan Province, using the Xiangya Pok Oi Rehabilitation Hospital as a model. We believe that with the company's strong state-owned enterprise background, rich rehabilitation medical industry experience and resources, and national policy support, the company's “Xiangya Model” also has strong potential to expand in other regions of Hunan. The prototype of a rehabilitation medical platform company in Hunan Province has taken shape. Profit forecast: We expect the revenue of the company's original hydropower generation business in 2015-17 to be 328 million, 394 million, 488 million, and net profit of 205 million, 268 million, and 346 million respectively, up 5.9%, 31.2%, and 28.8% year-on-year respectively, and EPS 0.44 yuan, 0.58 yuan, and 0.75 yuan respectively. The reasonable market value of the company's hydroelectric power generation business is about 6 billion yuan (corresponding to about 30 times PE in 15 years); the rehabilitation medical business model has been formed and is in line with national policy guidelines. There is great room for growth in asset-light expansion under the influence of flagship demonstrations, and its reasonable market value is estimated to be about 10 billion yuan. The overall reasonable market value of the company is 16 billion yuan, and the corresponding reasonable stock price is about 35 yuan. Considering the company's huge growth space for rehabilitation medicine and its mature and replicable business model, the company was given a “highly recommended” investment rating. Risk warning: “Xiangya model” cooperation is unstable; “Xiangya model” expansion within Hunan Province is blocked; excessive investment in the “Chunhua Health City” project is dragging down performance

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