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天龙集团(300063)中报点评:油墨业务基本平稳 持续转型数字营销

興業證券 ·  Aug 26, 2015 00:00  · Researches

Key investment events: The company released its 2015 interim report. Comment: The company's performance is in line with our expectations. The company's 15H1 revenue was 462 million yuan, up 9.90% year on year, and net profit attributable to listed companies was 1.48 million yuan, down 34.72% year on year, corresponding to diluted EPS of 0.0074 yuan, in line with our and market expectations (15H1 performance forecast decreased 33%-63% year on year); of this, 15Q2 revenue was 265 million yuan, up 12.4% year on year, and net profit was 2.39 million yuan (loss of 1.43 million yuan in the same period last year). Losses in the forestry and chemical business and increased expenses due to acquisitions were the main reasons for the decline in performance. 1) The company's forestry and chemical sector achieved operating income of 242 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.5%, accounting for 52.5% of revenue, but gross margin decreased by 1.84pct to 6.24%, and there was a loss; 2) The year-on-year decline in 15H1 performance was mainly due to the increase in management expenses and financial expenses caused by acquisitions. During the reporting period, sales expenses increased by 0.24pct to 6.28%, management expenses increased 2.16% to 8.75%, and financial expenses increased 1.49pct to 2.57%. The ink business has remained stable for the most part. 1) The overall ink business achieved revenue of 171 million yuan and gross profit of 47.49 million yuan, which remained stable. Among them, the revenue of water-based ink, solvent ink, and offset ink changed year-on-year by -5.03%, +3.89%, -66.44% to 11,974, 5051 and 480,000 yuan; 2) Benefiting from falling raw material prices, overall gross margin increased slightly, with changes of +2.38pct, +3.07pct, -4.89pct, -4.89pct to 29.0%, 25.1% and 8.2%; 3) The company led the water-based ink industry enterprise, water-based Ink technology and revenue scale remain at the forefront of the industry, and overall performance will remain stable in the future. Beijing Zhichuang and Guangzhou Orange Fruit performed well, and the 5H1 acquisition of Pinzong interacted vigorously to lay out digital marketing. Division 1, 15H1, Beijing Zhichuang, completed a 100% equity acquisition and merger, and Guangzhou Orange Fruit contributed a total of 48.22 million yuan in digital marketing revenue, with a gross margin of 53.7%, with good performance. 2) The company acquired Yu Tang Lianchuang (Pinzhong Interactive) in the first half of the year. Pinzhong Interactive is a leading search engine marketing (SEM). The company represents Baidu, 360, Sogou, and Google search engine services, is the top 3 search engine agent of the four major search engines, and has been ranked first since the implementation of Baidu's five-star ranking in 2013; 3) After the merger and acquisition is completed, the company will complete the full coverage of digital marketing in the four areas of CRM (Guangzhou Orange), mobile marketing (unlimited intellectual innovation), social marketing (excellent interaction), and search engine marketing (Pin Zhong Interaction). Profit forecasting and valuation. Since Pinzhong Interactive has yet to be announced, the decline in the company's performance growth rate in the first half of the year did not affect its recommendation logic as a leading search marketing company. Considering the merger of Pinzhong and Youli's complete acquisition of performance after gambling, the company's EPS for 15/16/17 is expected to be 0.55/0.72/0.94 yuan respectively, corresponding to the current stock price PE, which is 43/33/25 times, respectively. If the performance exceeds expectations and the possibility of continued external transformation, the valuation level is expected to drop significantly further. We continue to be optimistic about the growth space of the digital marketing industry and the company's future potential for external growth, and continue to maintain the “increase in holdings” rating. Risk warning: The integration of extended mergers and acquisitions falls short of expectations; the impact of declining macroeconomic growth.

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