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天喻信息(300205)中报点评:金融IC卡增速放缓拖累业绩 教育云市场值得期待

海通證券 ·  Aug 20, 2015 00:00  · Researches

Event: The company announced its 2015 semi-annual report, with revenue of 685 million yuan, an increase of 6.27% over the previous year, and net profit of 119 million yuan, an increase of -57.46% over the previous year. The performance base for the same period last year was high, resulting in a sharp decline in net profit over the same period last year. In the first half of '14, corporate finance IC card shipments increased well and unit prices were high, resulting in good overall performance. The growth rate of the financial IC card industry is slowing down, and falling unit prices are dragging down the company's performance. (1) Currently, financial IC cards account for about 75% of the company's total revenue, which is the most important source of revenue for the company; (2) Entering 2015, the penetration rate of financial IC cards in newly issued bank cards has reached 100%, while the number of cards issued in China's bank card market increased by about 20% year on year, and the overall growth rate of the industry is expected to slow down in 2015; (3) With the increase in new market entrants, the unit price of financial IC cards will drop by about 15% this year, and gross margin has declined; (4) We expect the company to ship about 160 million financial IC cards in 2015. Benefiting from “business reform and growth,” shipments in the tax control market have surged; mPOS is officially mass-produced, and the market prospects are worth looking forward to. (1) As some regional life service industries are included in the scope of business reform and growth, and the new demand brought about by the implementation of value-added tax invoicing system upgrades, demand in the tax control market surged in 2015. In the future, as more regional services, construction, real estate, and financial insurance industries are included in the scope of “business change and increase”, the tax control market is expected to maintain relatively rapid growth in the next 2 years; (2) We expect the company to ship about 500,000 units in 2015; (3) mPOS has met the rigid demand for payment, portability, and intelligent management for small and micro merchants, and the current rapid increase in industry shipments Very fast However, there are 60 million micro, small and medium-sized businesses in China that need this kind of service. We expect this will all be a blue ocean market within the next 2 years. At the same time, data services based on micro, small and medium-sized merchants will be a larger market. We are optimistic about the company's expansion in this field. The “education cloud” leads service transformation, and the market valuation logic should change. (1) The company's smart card business is no longer focused; various innovative businesses are the key to valuation. The company's current strategy is to continuously transfuse blood from the smart card business to innovative businesses such as Education Cloud, O2O smart retail, and TEE, and promote the company's transformation from “product” to “service”. The company is expected to usher in an inflection point in business structure optimization; (2) As of March 2015, 80% of schools across the country have achieved Internet access. The next 2 years will be a critical window for the bidding and construction of education cloud platforms around the world. The company has technology, resources, brands, and market advantages, and is the absolute leader in this market; (3) In June 2015, the company decided to invest 760 million dollars in Education Cloud Business, we are firmly optimistic about the company's expansion in this field. Maintain a “buy” rating. We expect Tianyu Information's 2015-2017 sales revenue to be 1,549/19.12/2,222 billion yuan, corresponding net profit of 0.57/1.21/192 million yuan, and corresponding EPS of 0.13/0.28/0.45 yuan, respectively. Considering the slowdown in the growth rate of the company's main financial IC card market, the company's target price for 12 months was lowered to 42 yuan, corresponding to 150 times PE in 2016, and maintained the “buy” rating. Risk factors: further decline in financial IC card shipments and unit prices; systemic risk.

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