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上海凯宝(300039):主业经营相对平稳 外延值得期待

銀河證券 ·  Aug 20, 2015 00:00  · Researches

1. The incident company achieved total operating income of 883 million yuan, an increase of 1.45% over the same period last year, and net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of 189 million yuan, an increase of 2.81% over the same period last year. Net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies after deducting non-recurring profit and loss was 187 million yuan, an increase of 3.19% over the same period last year, achieving an EPS of 0.23 yuan. 2. Our analysis and judgment (1) The main business is relatively stable. In the future, the product chain is gradually forming the company's main product, phlegm cleansing injection, to achieve sales of 799 million yuan, an increase of 0.18% over the previous year, achieving steady growth. Its growth rate has slowed slightly. The main reason is that it has been affected by adverse factors in the industry such as health insurance fee control, bid price cuts in some provinces and cities, and secondary price negotiations in some regions. The company's phlegm purification series products are still expected to grow steadily in the future. The reasons are: 1) Grassroots release: The company's phlegm hot cleaning injections have entered the supplementary catalogue of basic drugs in Guangdong, Xinjiang, Guangxi, Liaoning, Jilin, Shandong, Henan, Anhui, Zhejiang, Hubei, etc. 2) Product serialization development: Phlegm Heqing capsules have been approved for listing, have entered the Guangxi Local Health Insurance Supplement Catalogue, and will be rapidly released through agency channels in the future; phlegm heqing oral solution will enter phase III clinical summary to be reported to the National Evaluation Center; the development of phlegm heqing 5ml dosage forms is in the material-based research stage. In the future, phlegm heqing will form a series of products to participate in market competition in the form of combination punch, reduce the risk of individual varieties, and increase market competitiveness. 3) Increased brand awareness: In recent years, phlegm fat-clearing injections have successively entered many treatment guidelines and plans such as “SARS,” “hand, foot, and mouth disease,” “human avian influenza,” “H1N1,” “H7N9,” and “dengue fever,” and in June 2015, it also entered the “Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Case Diagnosis and Treatment Plan (2015 Edition)”. We believe that the increase in brand awareness obtained by entering multiple treatment guidelines and plans is conducive to long-term product growth and development. The company's future product hierarchy is gradually being formed: 1) In terms of the varieties sold, 148 varieties were obtained through the acquisition of Xinyi, including two exclusive varieties, Astragalus capsules, and tiopronin sodium; 2) Phase III clinical studies had a total of four products: butadiene oil softgels (irritable bowel syndrome), relief and pain relief capsules (migraine), Huadanan (insomnia), phlegm clearing oral solution; 3) Phase II clinical study: Youxin capsule (class 1.1 new drug, depression); 4) in vitro clinical research: pre-vitro studies: pre-vitro studies: in vitro Research on cultivating bear gall powder (pilot test). Also, if there is a good variety with particular potential, the company will continue to choose mergers and acquisitions. (2) The extension aspect is worth looking forward to: From varieties to enterprises, actively focusing on emerging fields, we have sorted out the relevant measures in the field of extension since the company went public, and found that since the end of last year, the company's extension development has accelerated (the establishment of an industrial fund is a confirmation), and the transformation from various types of mergers and acquisitions to corporate mergers and acquisitions has been achieved. The company's extension process is relatively slow after listing, mainly because the company is cautious in terms of external development and attaches great importance to the quality of mergers and acquisitions. Today, with industry changes and rapid development, the company hopes to accelerate the construction of the product hierarchy and industrial layout through extension development. The company currently has capital of about 700 to 800 million dollars (of which 300 million + million), and has a strong capital base for epitaxial development. In terms of the direction of epitaxial development, the company is not limited to pharmaceuticals, but the company is also focusing on big health, new technology, new models, etc. as the direction of future development. We believe that the company's epitaxial development is worth looking forward to and focus on. Attachment: Relevant measures relating to epitaxial development since the company's listing On August 16, 2012, it was announced that 8.5 million people would purchase new drug technology and patent rights for the “Wind Relief and Pain Relief Capsule” project. On January 14, 2014, it was announced that 8.5 million people would purchase new drug technology and patent rights for the “Huadan Anshen Complex” project. On November 25, 2014, it was announced that some of the overraised funds would be used to purchase the “bear bile drop pill” technology. On November 25, 2014, it was announced that some of the overraised funds will be used to purchase the raw materials and formulation technology of “butyl oil softgels”. On January 27, 2015, it was announced that some of the overraised funds would be used to cooperate in the development of “Youxindin Capsule”. On April 21, 2015, it was announced that Shanghai Kaibao Industrial Investment Fund Company was established. On May 12, 2015, it was announced that part of the overraised capital was used to acquire 100% of the shares of Henan Xinyi Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. (The acquisition of 148 varieties and 2 exclusive varieties effectively solved Kaibao's current situation of a single product; the problems of related transactions and competition with peers were completely eliminated; production costs are expected to be reduced in the future). (3) The short-term increase in the majority shareholders' relatively high holdings shows firm confidence in the company's future development. On July 16 and July 17, 2015, Mu Lai'an, the majority shareholder of the company, continuously increased his holdings by 223,200 shares and 42,600 shares respectively. The average increase in holdings was 17.30 and 18.37 yuan/share, respectively. The total increase in holdings was close to 4.5 million yuan. The short-term increase in shareholders' relatively high holdings demonstrated confidence in the future development of the company. 3. The company's investment recommendations estimate that EPS in 2015-17 will be 0.51, 0.62, and 0.73 yuan respectively, and corresponding PE will be 32, 27, and 22 times, respectively. The future growth path of the company's main performance contributing product, Phlegm Fever Cleaning Injection, is clear, and it is expected that steady growth will be maintained, and subsequent product echelons are gradually being formed. Furthermore, the company has sufficient cash on hand, and the company actively pays attention to epitaxial development, suggests focusing on it, and maintaining a “recommended” rating. 4. The main risk factors are that the price reduction of traditional Chinese medicines exceeds expectations, the promotion of new products falls short of expectations, and epitaxial development falls short of expectations.

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