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云南城投(600239)中报点评:结算周期致短期业绩波动、支付牌照稀缺推进转型

招商證券 ·  Aug 25, 2015 00:00  · Researches

The settlement cycle dragged down the interim performance, but did not change the full-year forecast. The company's main business is expected to be enhanced by the group's synergy, and the transformation is based on “healthy real estate” to seamlessly connect with Kunming's open economy, while payment licenses promote Internet layout. The company price only reflects the value of regional real estate companies, maintaining the “Highly Recommended - A” investment rating. The phased decline in interim results was mainly affected by factors such as the settlement cycle and high base. The company announced the interim report that it achieved revenue of 280 million yuan (-58%) in the first half of the year, net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies - 140 million (-261%), and EPS - 0.17 yuan; there are three reasons for the sharp decline in performance: 1) the settlement cycle affected the performance of the first half of the year. The current settlement products were all completed 15 years ago, and the projects to be completed in 15 years may be concentrated on settlement in the second half of the year; 2) some of the projects completed this year have not yet been consolidated. The transformation of completed stock projects has been relatively slow; 3) the investment income base for the same period last year (equity transfer) is high. With the settlement of completed projects in the second half of the year and the consolidation of acquisition projects, it is expected that the company will still be able to basically complete the annual revenue plan (4.3 billion dollars). The main business is actively expanding its layout, hoping to rely on group synergies to improve efficiency. The company's main business is actively developing and expanding into core regions such as Beijing through acquisitions, etc.; at the group level, the acquisition of Lemon International (HK:03688) may have a synergistic effect to enhance the ability of A-share entities to operate projects. At the same time, if the majority shareholders consolidate assets in accordance with previous interindustry competition avoidance clauses, the profits of listed entities will increase significantly. The transformation was based on “healthy real estate,” and the scarcity of payment licenses promoted the Internet strategy. The transformation of “healthy real estate” and exploration of the Greater Mekong region are seamlessly linked to Kunming's open economic reforms. At the same time, the proposed acquisition of Moyuan Payment: 1) is an online expansion of the company's Internet strategy (timeshare and community 020 based on “healthy real estate”); 2) the payment company is the largest card issuer and broadest business enterprise in southwest China, has the only Internet payment license in Yunnan, and there is plenty of room to imagine the scale of revenue and profit; 3) the acceleration of RMB internationalization vs. the southwest Yunnan Bridgehead vs. the Company's Greater Mekong Strategy enhances the company's e-commerce and payment imagination space. Maintain a “Highly Recommended - A” investment rating. Overall, company prices only reflect the value of regional real estate companies. The “One Road and One Belt” superposition of the company's Greater Mekong Plan, timeshare vacations, state-owned enterprise reform, and the free trade zone concept can provide a continuing catalyst. The irrational decline provides a good opportunity to open positions. Maintaining a target price of 30X15PE in the first stage, corresponding to the price center of 15 yuan, is expected to have a higher impact on market value in the future with the gradual implementation of catalysts. Risk warning: 1. Settlement progress and gross margin of major projects are lower than expected; 2. Progress in new economic layout such as timeshare platforms is lower than expected; 3. Progress in state-owned enterprise reform is lower than expected.

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