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深度*公司*商业城(600306):业绩略高于预期 或有转型或借壳预期

中銀國際 ·  Aug 24, 2015 00:00  · Researches

In the first half of 2015, the company achieved revenue of 657 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 20.03%. Net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 72.75 million yuan, and fully diluted earnings per share was -0.41 yuan. The performance was slightly higher than our expectations of -0.45 yuan, and net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies - 72.73 million yuan after deduction. In 2014, the company divested two non-core assets. Although it solved the risk of short-term delisting, it could not solve the business difficulties the company will face in the long term. We believe that Maoye Holding Company, with drastic changes in management, the company may have transformation or backdoor expectations. We maintained the company's 2015-17 earnings per share forecast of -0.9, -0.7, and -0.4 yuan, respectively, and lowered the target price to 20.50 yuan to maintain the purchase rating. Key points supporting ratings During the reporting period, retail business revenue declined, net profit loss, and the main business faced tremendous pressure: in the first half of 2015, the company achieved revenue of 657 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 20.03%, and a net profit loss of 72.15 million yuan. On a quarterly basis, the company achieved revenue of 284 million yuan in a single quarter, a year-on-year decrease of 14.73%. Although the decline in revenue growth in a single quarter in the second quarter was narrower than in the first quarter, the company's retail business faced tremendous pressure. The balance ratio was high, and financial expenses were under high pressure. Gross margin increased 1.48 percentage points year on year, and the cost ratio decreased by 1.83 percentage points year on year: during the reporting period, the company's comprehensive gross margin increased 1.48 percentage points year on year to 17.57%, and the expense ratio fell 1.83 percentage points year on year to 26.17%. Among them, sales, management, and finance expenses changed by -0.63, 0.12, and -1.32 percentage points year on year to 1.30%, 17.25%, and 7.63%, respectively. The main risk faced by ratings is that the transformation or backdoor progress has fallen short of expectations. After the valuation company successfully removed the cap, there was no change in short-term operating difficulties. Major changes in management may indicate that Maoye will transform or back the company. We maintained the company's 2015-17 earnings per share forecast of -0.9, -0.7, and -0.4 yuan, respectively, and lowered the target price from 25.00 yuan to 20.50 yuan to maintain the purchase rating.

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