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中国武夷(000797)中报点评:传统业务表现平淡 静待武夷花园南区

民生證券 ·  Aug 25, 2015 00:00  · Researches

The company's traditional business performance was lackluster. In the first half of 2015, the company's revenue was 1,002 billion yuan, +1.25% year-on-year, and realized net profit of 72 million yuan, +72.72% year-on-year. In the first half of the year, the company's real estate sales were 35,700 square meters, -3% year-on-year, with sales of 271 million yuan, or -5% year-on-year. The company undertook contracts for overseas projects worth about 700 million yuan, -28% over the same period last year. Whether it's real estate sales or international project contracts, the performance is lackluster. The static cost of Wuyi Garden South is about 3.15 billion yuan. At the end of 1999, the company's holding company, Hong Kong Wuyi Construction Co., Ltd., acquired Hong Kong Wuyi (Group) Co., Ltd. (a company formed by the majority shareholder Construction Engineering Group in Hong Kong). The company owned 600 acres of land in Tongzhou District of Beijing (Wuyi Garden South District Project) and 367 acres of land and part of property in Jiangning, Nanjing, with a purchase price of 161 million yuan. Since then, the Wuyi Garden South Area project has been transferred to the Beijing Wuyi Real Estate Development Company of the company Sun Company (the company holds 70% of the shares). Since the project is located in the core area of Tongzhou New Town, it has not entered the development process due to adjustments in Tongzhou's plans. In January 2014, the planning and design plan for the Southern District of Wuyi was approved in principle by the Beijing Municipal Planning Commission. In December 2014, the company transferred 20% and 10% of the shares held by Beijing Wuyi's minority shareholders for 430.6 million yuan and 215.4 million yuan respectively. Since then, the company has wholly owned the Beijing Wuyi and Wuyi Garden South District projects. Due to the land area ratio after the plan was adjusted, the nature of the land changed, and the company needed to make up for the difference in land prices. We expect this part of the cost to be around $2.5 billion. Judging from static costs, the cost of the Wuyi Garden South Area project is around 3.15 billion yuan. The sales price of the project was raised to 40,000 yuan/square meter recently, and the popularity of the Tongzhou real estate market has increased. The average sales price of second-hand housing in the surrounding Wuyi Garden is about 25,000 yuan/square meter, and the price of individual units is as high as 30,000 yuan/square meter. Since the Wuyi Garden South Area project is closest to the planned administrative site, and large-scale new development projects in the surrounding area are extremely scarce, we raised the opening sales price target for the first phase in mid-2016 to 40,000 yuan/square meter. Although recent purchase restrictions in Tongzhou have indeed impacted the local real estate market, we believe that the long-term potential for property appreciation driven by regional development in Tongzhou is still strong. We expect the potential value of the Wuyi Garden South Area project to be around 25 billion yuan. Stock price catalysts and risk alert catalysts: Beijing administrative function relocation plan announced Risk warning: The rise in housing prices falls short of expectations, profit forecasts and investment suggestions We believe that with the progress of the Wuyi Garden South Area project, the company's future performance will improve markedly. The company's EPS for 2015-2017 is expected to be 0.39/0.44/1.45 yuan respectively, giving it a “highly recommended” investment rating.

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