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数码视讯(300079):围绕电视屏布局 转型起步良好

方正證券 ·  Aug 31, 2015 00:00  · Researches

Key investment points: 1. Overall judgment: The company will focus on TV screens as the core and carry out epitaxial expansion. The main radio and television network business is growing steadily, and ultra-optical networks are growing rapidly; in the Internet financial layout, it has become an important P2P service provider with the advantages of license and reputation. Performance growth is impressive over the next three years, and opportunities will still be taken to expand externally in the future. The future is expected to drive a double increase in the company's performance and valuation. 2. The transformation and development results are good, and the revenue structure has been greatly improved: after several years of development, the old business originally accounted for 90%, and this year it accounts for about 50%. The new business grew rapidly, with an overall revenue growth rate of 69.66%, and net profit attributable to common shareholders of listed companies after deducting non-recurring profit and loss increased 26.91%. We believe that with the expansion of the scale of P2P finance and the expansion of fees and ultra-optical network coverage, the company's revenue growth rate in 2015-2017 was greater than 50% and profit higher than 20%. 3. The main business is growing steadily: The company is one of the largest suppliers of radio and television network equipment and systems in China, with sufficient technical and personnel reserves, and a market share of more than 30%. Market share and demand were stable, and the growth rate remained around 11%. 4. Rapid development of ultra-optical networks: The two-way transformation of radio and television began in '14, and the first half of '15 has surpassed '14, with a growth rate of 244% in the first half of the year. In 15 and 16, the growth rate is expected to be over 100%. The company, along with Huawei and ZTE, are the main standard-setters. Currently, the mature products are mainly digital video and Huawei. Currently, the products are mainly local devices, and in the future, they will be promoted on user-side devices. The gross profit of this business is about 40%, benefiting from lower prices of upstream raw materials, and gross profit increased by 4% this year. In the future, as the number of user-side devices increases, gross profit is likely to decline. 5. Financial business focuses on IC cards and P2P platforms: a total of 7-8 billion bank cards nationwide. Six to eight hundred million new cards were issued in 15 years, and the next three years will be the peak period for card exchanges. Competition is fierce. The company's IC cards are mainly newly issued, and existing cards will be gradually replaced with IC cards in the future. The market pattern is stable, and as a new entrant, it is difficult to gain a high market share in the short term. 6. Internet finance: Provides payment and fund custody for P2P companies. Currently, there are more than 600 customers, accounting for about 25% of the market share, and 5,000 daily transactions. The number of customers is in the top four in the industry. The current monthly capital turnover of 15-20 billion dollars has increased by more than 400% since the beginning of the year. B2B2C, does not use 2C mode. Depending on the P2P company's business volume, the handling fee is charged on an annual basis for each account, ranging from 100,000 to hundreds of thousands. It invests 10-20 million dollars every year, and in July it applied to the central bank for pre-approval for listing on the New Third Board. We believe that the license, reputation, and listing on the New Third Board will promote the further expansion of online financial platforms. We expect to achieve break-even in 15 years, with a transaction volume of 300 billion dollars. 7. Other business: The acquisition of Bohui Technology to provide security monitoring and monitoring systems and equipment for radio and television networks, which has not yet been extended to households. Up to now, the business revenue is about 30 million yuan. Film and television media business: Currently, it is mainly based on the investment guarantee share model, and each project accounts for about 20% of the investment. The key development direction in the future is to make own dramas, rely on the subsidiary's perfect starry sky, and create its own IP. The initial plan is 1-2 per year in the future. Recently, the business is still mainly nurturing, and does not rely on it to generate significant revenue and profits. The profit forecast predicts revenue of 8.5/12.2/1.55 billion yuan from 2015 to 2017, net profit of 2.2/28/320 million yuan. The current share capital is 0.33/0.41/0.47 yuan, and the corresponding PE is 55/44/38 times. Considering the company's basic business revenue growth and stable market position, the revenue and profit contribution surrounding the TV screen expansion business is good. In the later stages, the Internet-related business will continue to be enriched through epitaxial development, and the company was given a “recommended” rating for the first time. The risk suggests that the company's transformation progress is lower than expected, and the gross margin of traditional business is declining.

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