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西藏旅游(600749):偶发性事件冲击业绩 外延扩张预期仍是最主要看点

中信建投 ·  Sep 1, 2015 00:00  · Researches

The incident company achieved revenue of 44.19 million yuan (-15.6%) in the first half of the year, net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies - 4124 million yuan (increase in loss of 25.85 million yuan), and net profit after deduction of 46.22 million yuan (loss increase of 3.09 million yuan). EPS - 0.2181 yuan. Briefly evaluate the eventual downturn and increased depreciation as the main reasons for the increase in losses. With the earthquake in Nepal in April, Zhangmu Port, which was affected by the earthquake, was an important channel for inbound visitors to the company's Ali Scenic Area. Nepal is also one of the important transit points for foreign visitors to the company's Ali Scenic Area, causing visitors to the company's Ali Scenic Area to be adversely affected; the “two limits and one police” policy implemented due to the two major road traffic accidents in the Tibet region in 2014 is still ongoing, and the number of visitors and operating income of the company's other scenic spots in the Linzhi region fell short of expectations; the construction of the investment project raised by the company's non-public development shares in 2011 was completed and consolidated at the end of 2014. The revenue from the scenic area business was 286.39 million yuan (-15%). Among them, the Grand Canyon Scenic Area achieved revenue of 254.886 million yuan (+8%); Ali Scenic Area reached 608,700 yuan (-85%); and the revenue of Basuntso Scenic Area and Lulang Scenic Area declined by 61% and 23%, respectively. The total revenue of the hotel in the current period was 1.1257 million yuan, and net profit was -16.436,800 yuan; the travel agency business was affected by the “two limits and one warning” policy, with current revenue of 1,618,800 yuan (-57%), net profit of -2,0443,600 yuan, an increase of 1,238,600 yuan; the current revenue of automobile companies was 456 million yuan (-75%), and net profit was -548,400 yuan. Guofeng Advertising had revenue of 9.866 million yuan (-10%) and profit of -2,388 million yuan, compared to 3753 million yuan in the same period last year. Expectations of epitaxial expansion are the main focus. 1) The company received the “China Securities Regulatory Commission Administrative License Project Review Feedback Notice” issued by the Securities Regulatory Commission on August 28, 2015. After the finalization meeting, the company is expected to carry out extended mergers and acquisitions. At the same time, Zhantou Xiangyuan has resources to inject into the scenic area. 2) Guofeng Group, the majority shareholder of the company, has gradually begun to cooperate with alumni. In the future, the possibility of investing through capital management to inject high-quality projects into listed companies will not be ruled out. Overstock ratings. The chairman of the company has a strong ability to obtain resources, obtain cash after a fixed increase, and the majority shareholders obtain resources for cross-border cooperation among alumni. There are strong expectations of extended expansion. Risk warning. The risk that the full-year performance will not be reversed; the risk that political factors in the Ali region are special and will be constrained by policies and traffic for a long time; the impact of occasional incidents.

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