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茂业商业(600828)首次覆盖报告:逆势扩张 静待整合提升带来经营改善

國泰君安 ·  Jun 20, 2017 09:00  · Researches

  Investment points: Investment advice: The company is an A-share listing platform for Maoye's commercial assets. Beginning in 2016, the company embarked on a path of national department store expansion through Maoye's high-quality asset injection, bucking the trend by acquiring Renhe, an established department store in Chengdu, and Victoria, a retail giant in Inner Mongolia. The 2016 performance was hampered by factors such as the integration of acquisition targets, etc., but with the completion of adjustments and the recovery of the industry, a subsequent rebound in performance is worth looking forward to. The company's 2017-2019 EPS is expected to be 0.40/0.44/0.48 yuan. The reference industry average gave 2017 PE23X, with initial coverage, a target price of 9.2 yuan, and an increase in holdings ratings. Maoye is a commercial asset integration platform that bucked the trend and expanded to seize high-quality resources. The company was originally a leading department store in Chengdu. In February 2016, Maoye, the controlling shareholder, injected high-quality property assets into department stores in South China. Since then, the company has successively acquired Renhe, an established department store in Chengdu, and Victoria, a retail giant in Inner Mongolia, with cash. The company has continued to expand throughout the country. Currently, it has 38 stores, covering an area of over 1.3 million square meters. As an integration platform for A-share commercial and trade assets under the “Maoye Department”, the company is expected to continue to expand in the future through the injection of mature Maoye projects and the acquisition of high-quality retail assets in vitro. The performance during the consolidation period has been dragged down, so we are still waiting for management to improve. In 2016, the company successively acquired Maoye's South China business, Inner Mongolia Victoria, and Chengdu Renhe through the issuance of shares and cash. Among them, the 2016-2018 performance promises of Maoye's South China business are not less than 71,000 million yuan, 7.8 million yuan, and 840 million yuan respectively; in 2016, due to the influence of the construction of the Huaqiang North Road section and its own renovation, Maoye completed only 83% of the promised performance, and the contracted party's share payment compensation plan has already been announced. Judging from Q1 in 2017, the impact of construction has been eliminated, and the revenue growth rate in Shenzhen has been corrected year on year. After undergoing integrated adjustments, the company's operations are expected to gradually improve. Risk factors: Poor management of mergers and acquisitions of department stores, and uncertainty about performance promises and compensation.

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