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信达地产(600657):跟投房地产基金 金融地产新业务启动

民生證券 ·  Sep 11, 2015 00:00  · Researches

Following investment in real estate funds, the new business startup company signed partnership agreements with China Cinda and Cinda Capital, initiated the establishment of a real estate fund, and invested in the Shenzhen Zhonglin Science and Technology Industrial Park South District project in the form of equity and debt. As the only real estate listing platform owned by China Cinda, we believe that the company's business model is relatively scarce: strong ability to obtain projects, strong ability to obtain capital, and broad prospects for developing new businesses. Among them, the ability to obtain projects has been realized, and the company has actively participated in the business of China Cinda to restructure the Jiayue Group, and obtained relatively high-quality projects. The company is now following up on investing in real estate funds, taking advantage of China Cinda's financial strength to develop new businesses. On the one hand, it can obtain higher profits, and on the other hand, it can also help the company manage exports. Land reserves are abundant, and performance growth can be expected at the end of the first quarter. The company has an area of 3.8 million square meters under construction, and the planned construction area of the reserve project is about 5.1 million square meters. Comparable, the company's sales area for each year from 2012 to 2014 was 434,000 square meters, 614,000 square meters, and 669,000 square meters, respectively. The size of the company's land reserves can support the long-term development of the company. We believe that most of the company's projects are located in Tier 1 and 2 cities, which will greatly benefit from this round of real estate policy easing and market recovery. We expect the company's sales in 2015 and 2016 to reach 8,010 billion yuan respectively. Comparable, the company's annual sales in 2012-2014 were 3.76 billion yuan, 4.14 billion yuan, and 6.6 billion yuan, respectively. The company's sales growth is on the fast track. The fixed increase plan was accepted by the Securities Regulatory Commission, and the company's fixed increase plan with a high margin of stock price safety was recently accepted by the Securities Regulatory Commission. The original plan was to raise no more than 2 billion yuan of capital at a price of not less than 8.37 yuan/share. Considering the impact of the company's dividend plan, we expect that the fixed price increase will be adjusted to no less than 8.27 yuan/share. The current stock price has a high margin of safety. Risk warning Risk warning: (1) the company's sales situation fell short of expectations; (2) the majority shareholders' support fell short of expectations. Profit forecasting and investment advice We believe that the company's ability to acquire resources is strong, and sales have entered a period of growth. At the same time, the promotion of asset-light businesses such as financial real estate will effectively hedge against the impact of declining gross margin in real estate development business. It is estimated that the company's EPS from 2015 to 2017 will be 0.62/0.76/0.92 yuan respectively, maintaining the “highly recommended” investment rating.

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