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东莞控股(000828)深度报告:东莞国资唯一上市平台 “产融双驱”值得期待

招商證券 ·  Aug 27, 2015 00:00  · Researches

The company faces the triple benefits of a reversal in the main business, revaluation of financial assets, and reform of state-owned enterprises. We forecast that the company's 15-17 EPS will be 0.79, 0.81, and 0.91 yuan, respectively, corresponding to PE 13.5X, 13.2X, and 11.8X, covering the first time, giving it a “Highly Recommended - A” investment rating. The first target price is 19.8 yuan. The Dongguan State-owned Assets Administration Commission is the only listing platform, and the two main businesses of highway+finance are progressing steadily. The company is the only state-owned listed company in Dongguan, and its main business is expressways. The Dongguan State-owned Assets Administration Commission holds a total of about 69% of the shares through the top three shareholders, and is the actual controller of the company. The company lays out financial investment business with a “dual drive for industry and finance” development strategy to promote the integration of the main business and financial investment business. In the first half of the year, the expressway business contributed 55% to the company's net profit, while financial investment income contributed 38% to the net profit. The rapid reversal of business performance ushered in a new period of growth. Benefiting from the completion of the renovation and expansion of the Meiguan Expressway and free traffic, the attractiveness of the Guan-Shenzhen Expressway has increased, and traffic is growing rapidly. In the medium term, the diversion effect on parallel road sections is manageable; the Pearl River Delta Road grid station is about to be completed, and the penetration effect is worth looking forward to. The company has no major capital expenses in the short term and has plenty of cash flow, providing sufficient “bullets” for dividends and reinvestment. The revaluation of financial assets, capital increases financing and leasing, and the pre-disclosure of the Dongguan Securities IPO open up room for imagination. The company has completed the acquisition of 100% of Rongtong Leasing's shares. Subsequent capital increases and additional leverage will drive rapid growth in Rongtong Leasing's performance. We expect Rongtong Leasing's net profit for 15/16/17 to be 0.65/1.78/219 million yuan, respectively. Recently, the associated company, Dongguan Securities, carried out a pre-IPO disclosure, and the equity value was revalued. According to a conservative estimate of 2.5X PB, 20% of the company's equity is worth approximately $3.3 billion. State-owned enterprise reforms have advanced dramatically, and company valuations have been raised. The company is the only state-owned listing platform in Dongguan, and the majority shareholders have changed their names to strengthen reform expectations. In the first half of the year, the company plans to use non-public offerings to implement employee stock ownership plans, substantially advance state-owned enterprise reform, and raise the company's valuation. The first coverage gave a “Highly Recommended - A” rating, and the first target price was 19.8 yuan. We forecast the company's 15-17 EPS to be 0.79, 0.81, and 0.91 yuan, respectively, corresponding to PE 13.5X, 13.2X, and 11.8X. The triple benefit of the reversal of the company's main business, revaluation of financial assets, and reform of state-owned enterprises was covered for the first time. It was given a “Highly Recommended - A” investment rating. The first target price was 19.8 yuan. Risk warning: Traffic growth was lower than expected, and A-shares pulled back sharply.

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