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西藏旅游(600749)中报点评:新项目投入运营制约短期业绩 关注藏区旅游业长期成长红利

興業證券 ·  Aug 31, 2015 00:00  · Researches

Key investment events: The company announced that 15H achieved operating income of 44.19 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 15.60%, net profit loss of 41.24 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.85 million yuan, and an EPS of about -0.22 yuan. Comment: Performance declined due to the earthquake and domestic policies in the Tibetan region. Affected by the earthquake in Nepal in April and the implementation of the “two limits and one warning” policy in Tibet in August '14, the scenic area business in the first half of the year fell 15.1% year on year. Among them, the more mature Grand Canyon scenic area increased 8% year on year, accounting for 89% of the scenic area's business revenue contribution; the Ali Scenic Area decreased by 85%; and the Basuntso Scenic Area and Lulang Scenic Area declined by 61% and 23% respectively. The company's overall revenue for the first half of the year fell 15.6%. The increase in expenses for the completion of new projects is limiting short-term performance, and it is expected that the number of visitors to the scenic area will ease after the number of visitors to the scenic area is increased. Due to the consolidation of projects under construction and the cessation of calculation of interest capitalization, depreciation expenses and financial expenses for the current period increased. The cost rate reached 113.48%, a sharp increase of 48.25 pct over the same period last year, limiting the company's short-term performance; the Linzhi Scenic Area has entered a period of rapid growth and Ali is fully put into operation, which is expected to break through the current difficulties. The company actively creates 5A scenic spots and strengthens the construction of O2O platforms. The Linzhi region plans to build three 5A scenic spots, involving the company's related scenic spots; at the same time, the company will strengthen the construction of O2O platforms and expand sales channels for tourism products, and the company's scenic area operations are gradually on the right track. The policy supports the economic and social development of the Tibet region, and the tourism industry is expected to continue to grow at a high rate. Since this year, Premier Keqiang and **** have supported the economic development of the Tibet region and successfully celebrated the 50th anniversary of the establishment of Tibet (September 1). As a pillar industry in Tibet, tourism plays an important driving role in economic development, and at the same time, tourism development can effectively drive employment and improve transportation. The 6th Tibet Aid Work Conference proposed making Tibet an important world tourist destination and an important channel open to Southeast Asia. Profit forecast and investment rating: Without considering the impact of fixed growth, we expect the company's EPS for 15-17 to be -0.16/0.06/0.15 yuan respectively. As the five major Tibetan regions and neighboring exclusive domestic tourism listed companies, the company has exclusive rights to manage resources in top quality scenic spots such as Brahmaputra Grand Canyon Scenic Area, Basuncuo, Lulang, and Alishenshan Sacred Lake. Transportation improvements in the Linzhi region continue to advance. As the Tibet region continues to improve policies and the company's scenic spots gradually mature, we recommend focusing on the company's excellent scenic area development capabilities and long-term growth space, and maintaining a “growing rating”。 Risk warning: The number of visitors to scenic spots falls short of expectations, policy support falls short of expectations, and risks such as politics and natural disasters.

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