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安源煤业(600397)中报点评:全年亏损概率大 期待煤炭供应链平台放量

中信證券 ·  Aug 31, 2015 00:00  · Researches

There was a sharp loss in the first half of the year, and the performance fell short of expectations. The company achieved operating income of 2,650 billion yuan in the first half of the year, a year-on-year decline of 62.63%, and net profit of 112 million yuan, a sharp loss. EPS -0.11 yuan, far below market expectations. The reduction in the volume and price of coal production and the restructuring of the trading business led to a sharp decline in the company's revenue. Although expenses during the period were reduced, overall costs were still high, leading to large losses in the first half of the year. In the first half of the year, coal sales fell by about 18%, and coal prices fell 15%. The company produced 2.7832 million tons of raw coal in the first half of the year (-14% year-on-year). Commercial coal production/sales were 263.77/2,476 million tons (-16%/-18% year-on-year) due to the reduction in coal quality and imported coal washing volume. The average price of commercial coal is 433.78 yuan/ton (down 15% from the previous year), and the gross profit per ton of coal is 47.97 yuan. The unit cost of commercial coal is 385.81 yuan/ton (a year-on-year decrease of about 5.89%). The trading volume of coal trade was 2,6701 million tons (-40% yoy), the unit price of coal trade was 450.96 yuan/ton (-12% yoy), procurement costs 442.88 yuan/ton (-13% yoy), and the gross profit of traded tonnes of coal was 8.08 yuan (+2.92 yuan), a slight improvement. Transform and upgrade traditional businesses and promote strategic cooperation with power companies. In recent years, against the backdrop of a continuous decline in the prosperity of the coal industry, the company has actively extended the coal industry chain and promoted strategic cooperation with power companies. The company and Datang International Power Co., Ltd. jointly funded the establishment of Jiangmei Datang Coal Company to develop the Jiangxi Xinyu Jianjia Coalfield, and plan to establish the Datang Jiang Coal Power Generation Company. It is estimated that the installed capacity will reach 2 x 660 megawatts in the future. “Integration of coal and electricity” further stabilizes the company's profits and improves cash flow. Transform Internet supply chain finance and build a “two lakes and one river” regional coal trading center. In April 2015, the Jiangxi Coal Trading Center, which was jointly established by the company and Tianjin Pan-Asia E-Commerce Technology Service Co., Ltd., launched the “Coal Trading and Internet Finance Platform” and officially entered the field of Internet finance. The platform uses an innovative P2S operating model (Peer to Supply Chain), connects Internet finance with the coal supply chain, and provides a one-stop service for members. Currently, cooperative warehouses include the Jiangxi Coal Storage Center, Jiangxi Ganzhong Coal Storage and Transportation Center, and Yangzijiang Port in Jiangsu Province. Platform financing targets for 2015 and 2016 are 1 billion and 5 billion, respectively. The Internet supply chain finance business opens up more space for the company's development. The reform of state-owned enterprises in Jiangxi Province is progressing at an accelerated pace, and the company is expected to benefit. On January 19, 2015, Jiangxi Province issued the “Implementation Opinions on the Reform of State-owned State-owned Enterprises in Jiangxi Province” to promote reform in key areas and enterprises. Currently, the market value of listed companies is less than 10 billion yuan. Among coal companies, they are relatively small in size and have little resistance to transformation. The company is the only listing platform under the Jiangxi Energy Group, and there are strong expectations for integrating the group's internal resources in the future. Risk factors: Continued slump in coal prices affects performance growth. The development of financial models for the Internet supply chain is limited. The progress of state-owned enterprise reform has fallen short of expectations. Profit forecast, valuation and investment rating: Considering the latest coal price expectations, we gave the company a 2015-2017 EPS forecast of -0.25/0.05/0.08 yuan (the original forecast was 0.04/0.06/0.13 yuan), and the current price is 5.92 yuan. The company was given P/B2x in 2015, corresponding to the target price of 6.60 yuan, and the rating was lowered to “increase holdings.”

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