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长荣股份(300195)2015年中报点评:云印刷爆发性增长可期

世紀證券 ·  Aug 28, 2015 00:00  · Researches

The performance is generally in line with expectations. The company achieved operating income of 474 million yuan during the period, an increase of 26.2% over the previous year; operating profit of 101 million yuan, an increase of 21.4% over the previous year; and net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of 86.56 million yuan, an increase of 30.6% over the previous year, achieving a diluted EPS of 0.25 yuan. The acquisition of Liqun Printing contributed to performance. The acquisition of Liqun Printing began in May 2014. From January to June 2015, Shenzhen Liqun Printing contributed 197 million yuan in revenue from January to June 2015, an increase of 81.1% over the same period last year from May to May; in the first half of 2015, Shenzhen Liqun Printing's contribution revenue accounted for 42% of the consolidated income statement, driving an increase in total revenue. The handover of export channels affected equipment sales, and orders stabilized. Revenue from equipment business such as die-ironing machines and die-cutting machines fell 11.7% year on year. The main reason is that since April, the company's overseas distribution business has been sold through Heidelberg, and its sales and customer service personnel have been trained, which affected exports in the second quarter. Exports have been normalized since the handover was completed. At the end of the cut-off period, the contract value for equipment that had already been ordered and not delivered was 25.204 million yuan (including 179.67 million in China and 72.37 million abroad). The cloud printing business continues to be promoted, and rapid growth can be expected. The cloud printing business achieved cumulative revenue of 21.18 million yuan in the first half of 2015, of which revenue for the second quarter was 19.08 million yuan. After less than a year of trial operation and a series of business promotion measures, a certain amount of market space was stimulated. After less than a year of trial operation and a series of business promotion measures, the cloud printing business will become a major new performance growth point in the future. The company plans to have more than 500 contracted dealers during the year, 10,000 active online members, and complete the work related to 1 franchise factory. This year, the cloud printing business is likely to achieve the planned revenue of 100 million yuan, making profit and loss flat or slightly profitable, while rapid growth can be expected in the future. Profit forecast and investment rating: We forecast that the company's 2015-2017 EPS will be 0.71 yuan, 0.92 yuan and 1.19 yuan respectively, corresponding to the dynamic PE for 2015-2016, 45 and 34.7 times, respectively. Although the acquired Liqun tobacco label business is growing steadily, the cloud printing business is about to explode, and the company continues to expand in an external manner and transform into a smart printer service provider, considering that the current market valuation level has continued to decline, we have temporarily downgraded the company's investment rating to “neutral.” Risk warning: Cloud printing business is progressing less than expected; equipment business recovery is lower than expected, etc.

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