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慧聪网(02280.HK)季报点评:平台转型存在压力 下调目标价至7.2港元

中金公司 ·  Aug 27, 2015 00:00  · Researches

Results for the 2nd quarter of 2015 were lower than expected. Affected by weak economic growth and platform transformation, Wiscom's operating income for the 2nd quarter of 2015 fell 26% year on year to 180 million yuan, and net profit fell 73% year on year to 16 million yuan. The development trend was affected by the unfavorable economic environment, and B2B1.0 business declined. In the second quarter of 2015, due to the slowdown in China's macroeconomic growth rate, Wiscom's revenue fell about 26% year over year, and net profit fell 73% year over year. Some of Wisdom's customers (SMEs) are under greater pressure. As some customers withdrew from the market, the number of paying customers fell to 161,000 to 162,000, which had a negative impact on Wiscom's revenue. The net interest rate fell to 9% (25% in Q2 2014 and 12% in Q1 2015) because the net interest rate of the online service business, which had a higher net interest rate, fell from 91% to 82% in the 2nd quarter of 2015, and the company invested heavily in B2B2.0 through acquisitions. We believe that in the short term, due to weak macroeconomic growth, traditional B2B1.0 business will continue to decline. B2B transformation is imperative, but monetization will still take time. In the second quarter, Huicong.com continued to build a B2B2.0 ecosystem, including trading platforms and online microfinance financing. However, the trading platform has not yet been monetized, contrary to management's promises over the past three years. The microfinance company contributed about RMB 9 million in profit. Management wants to invest in an online financing system with more loan transactions. Therefore, the profit margin of this part of the business will remain in single digits. The B2B1.0 business of Huicong Network is currently facing bottlenecks. We believe that in the long run, it is necessary to develop a B2B2.0 business model, but profit margins will be affected in the short term, and revenue contribution will be limited. The pace of acquisitions will slow down in the second half of the year. The deal to acquire Zhongguancun Online was completed on July 3, and Zhongguancun Online will merge in the second half of the year. Given cash and valuation constraints, the company is expected to slow the pace of its acquisitions. Profit forecast adjustments We lowered our 2015 and 2016 operating income forecasts by 31% and 27% to $1 billion and $1.3 billion, respectively, and lowered our net profit forecasts by 48% and 45% to $171 million and $240 million, respectively, corresponding to earnings per share of HK$0.26 and HK$0.36 (corresponding to RMB 0.20 and $0.29), respectively. Valuation and advice The transformation of companies to B2B2.0 will facilitate their long-term development and maintain “recommended” ratings. The target price was lowered by 52% to HK$7.2, corresponding to the 2016 price-earnings ratio of 20 times. Weak demand in risk markets; uncertainty about platform transformation.

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