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兆日科技(300333)点评:具有独创技术的票据防伪龙头

財達證券 ·  Sep 24, 2015 00:00  · Researches

The company was founded before 2000 and is engaged in bill anti-counterfeiting business centered on the development and application of modern cryptographic technology. It mainly includes three major products: electronic payment password systems, cryptographic chips for bill anti-counterfeiting systems, and tax control security components. It has maintained the highest market share in the bill anti-counterfeiting market for many years. In the first half of 2015, the company achieved operating income of 91.04 million yuan, an increase of 20.93% over the previous year; realized net profit attributable to the owners of the parent company of 21.79 million yuan, an increase of 15.63% over the previous year, turning a loss into a profit. In the first half of 2015, the sales volume of electronic payment cryptographic systems rose rapidly, which to a certain extent made up for the impact of the decline in gross margin on performance and led to an increase in net profit. However, in the second half of this year, it is difficult to expect sales of electronic payment cryptographic systems to continue to grow, and subsequent performance growth still requires the promotion of new products. The phenomenon of bill cloning has existed for a long time, and many products cannot fundamentally solve the problem of bill cloning. After ten years of hard work, in 2012, the company successfully developed the world's first paper fiber texture sensor, and completed the mathematical model construction and automatic recognition technology for paper fiber texture. In mid-2014, the technology completed commercialization work and entered trial commercial promotion. The first batch of products was used on a large scale by about 20 commercial banks in East China. Due to the unique nature of this technology, once the product is recognized by the market, the market prospects are huge. In the future, it is also possible to expand into the luxury sector. Profit forecast: We expect operating income for 2015-2017 to be 175 million yuan, 194 million yuan, and 218 million yuan, respectively; earnings per share of 0.10 yuan, 0.13 yuan, and 0.16 yuan. The price-earnings ratio corresponding to the current stock price is 209 times, 163 times, 140 times, etc., so be careful to give an “increase in holdings” rating. Risk warning: the risk of a new product launch being slower than expected; the risk of a continued decline in the market.

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