Main points of investment
The exhibition store slows down, and the improvement of investment income drives the low-speed growth of performance. On the whole, the speed of the company's exhibition stores has slowed down significantly in recent years compared with previous years, and in the short term, while consumption is still weak, the speed of exhibition stores is relatively slow. At the same time, the company deepens experience consumption in major stores and enriches non-shopping elements, which will play a pulling role in store sales and passenger flow. In an environment where industry prosperity continues to decline and e-commerce diversion, these measures can increase the company's defensive attributes and ensure that same-store growth is relatively stable. On the investment income side, with the investment income contributed by the company's small loans (25%), China Post Consumer Finance (3.5%), financial products (reduced capital expenditure), financial assets, etc., this part of the investment income will contribute 20-30% of the company's overall performance, driving the company's performance to maintain about 5% growth in the next few years.
The reform of state-owned enterprises in Guangzhou is the catalyst of the company's stock price. Guangzhou is in the vanguard of the national state-owned enterprise reform, and the company's share price will benefit from the impact of the short-term state-owned enterprise reform plan to a large extent. Drawing lessons from the reform of capital operation mode of other enterprises in Guangzhou, we believe that if the company participates in the reform of state-owned enterprises in the future, or mainly in the following two ways: 1) the company may transfer shareholders' equity to the state-owned assets development platform to operate the state-owned assets reform, and then introduce strategic investors to achieve asset securitization through additional issuance and acquisition of assets of Guangbai Group. 2) in addition, there is no employee shareholding in the company, so it is more likely to introduce war investment and management shareholding in the later stage, so as to improve the performance of the company.
Profit forecast and valuation. We estimate that the net profit of the shareholders of the company belonging to the parent company in 2015-2017 is 241 million, 247 million and 259 million respectively, an increase of 1.20%, 2.33% and 5.08% respectively. Based on the closing price on 2015-9-11, the company's corresponding PE for 2015-2017 is 19.6,18.1 and 18.2 times. We use two methods of comparable listed company PE and revaluation to give the company the target price of 14.00-15.20 yuan, covering it for the first time and giving it an "overweight" rating.
Risks and uncertainties. 1) rent and staff costs rose higher than expected; 2) the reform of state-owned enterprises in Guangzhou was lower than expected.