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国兴地产(000838)点评:增发完成日、扬帆起航时

西南證券 ·  Sep 30, 2015 00:00  · Researches

Incident: On September 29, the company issued an announcement stating that for the majority shareholder Caixin Group, the additional price was 7.87 yuan/share, the number of additional shares issued was 133 million shares, raised 1.05 billion yuan, and the lockdown period was 36 months. After issuance, Caixin Group's shareholding ratio in the company will rise from 29.9% to 59.65%, achieving absolute control over the company. The completion of additional distribution is of great significance to the company. This release had its ups and downs, and it took about 1 year before and after. We believe that this additional issuance is of great significance to the company, mainly reflected in the following aspects: 1. By injecting more than 1 billion yuan in cash into the company, the company's urgent capital problems will be fundamentally improved, and the “Guoxing. North Shore Jiangshan” project will advance rapidly; 2. More importantly, the majority shareholders have completed complete control over the company, and the strategic planning and control of the company will be more convenient in the future. The operation of capital does not stop there. Recently, Guoxing Real Estate has carried out a series of capital operations, showing that both listed companies and holding group companies are actively adjusting the company's business to cope with the current downward pressure on the real estate market. However, judging from the current situation, the company's strategic plan is far from complete. In addition to relying on endogenous development, external capital operations will continue to be promoted. Real estate taxes have had little impact on companies. Recently, the Chongqing Local Taxation Bureau announced that “individual housing or high-end housing with a unit price of more than 13,192 square meters of construction area will be subject to personal property tax.” Guoxing Real Estate's main product, “Guoxing. North Shore Jiangshan,” apart from the “constant temperature, constant humidity, and constant oxygen” project that has not yet been launched, the highest unit price will not exceed 13,192 square meters. The prices of other projects under construction are even lower, and none of them touch the real estate tax payment line, so the impact of real estate tax on Guoxing Real Estate is very small. Important points of interest in the second half of the year: We continue to be optimistic about the future development of Guoxing Real Estate: 1. In the second half of the year, Guoxing Real Estate's capital operations and business expansion will continue to gain strength, further opening up space for imagination; 2. In addition to managing the “constant temperature, humidity, and constant oxygen” project, there is a possibility that the company's energy management company will continue to expand in power generation, heating, etc. in the future; 3. The controlling shareholder, Caixin Group, has strong resources, involving real estate, environmental protection, finance and other fields. Asset injection or mixed business operations are possible. Performance forecast and valuation: We forecast the company's EPS (dilution) for 2015 and 2016 to be $0.29 and $0.36, respectively. Maintain a “buy” rating. Risk warning: The real estate market may decline further, or national policies may change.

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