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永安林业(000663)简评:改革带动市场发展空间 毛利提升推动公司业绩扭转

財達證券 ·  Sep 25, 2015 00:00  · Researches

In 2015, in an environment where the national economy was slowing down, the performance of the building materials and home furnishing market was relatively low, and the overall microenvironment of the wood industry was relatively low. Among them, demand for wood-based panels and medium fiber boards remained at a historical low level. However, by increasing the capital turnover ratio and continuously reducing the three fees, the company maintained a good growth momentum and achieved an overall loss reversal in the second quarter. Currently, the company has about 2 million mu of forest resources, of which commercial forests and ecological forests account for the majority, with an annual output of about 100,000 to 200,000 cubic meters. After removing the adverse factors, on the basis of continuous cost cuts, the gross profit has increased dramatically this year, and operations are at a critical inflection point. With the advent of the forestry reform period, the company's operations will rise to the next level in the future. Affected by the El Niño phenomenon, the deterioration of the global living environment has accelerated. At the Copenhagen Conference, China promised to reduce CO2 emissions; Fujian Province has the highest forest cover rate in the country. In 2010, Fujian issued an “Emergency Notice on Stopping Natural Forest Harvesting”. As of the second quarter of 2015, Fujian Province still implemented a logging restriction policy. Recently, documents relating to forest reform have been concentrated. Among them, the China Forestry Administration issued the “Measures for the Filing of State-owned Forest Farms” and the “General Plan for the Reform of the Ecological Civilization System” issued by the CPC Central Committee and the State Council, proposing that all natural forests be included in the scope of protection. Establish a national timber forest reserve system. Gradually promote the separation of government and enterprises in state-owned forest areas, and improve the public welfare forest management mechanism for state-owned forest farms, which mainly focuses on purchasing services. Improve the collective forest rights system, stabilize contract rights, expand management capabilities, improve forest rights mortgages and circulation systems, and forecast the company's 2015-2017 EPS of 0.02, 0.06, and 0.09 yuan, giving the company an “increase in holdings” rating. Risk warning: market change risk, regulatory risk, industrial policy change risk.

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