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吴通通讯(300292)点评:业绩高速增长 信息服务+数字营销持续爆发

興業證券 ·  Oct 13, 2015 00:00  · Researches

Key investment events: The company announced the third quarter results forecast. Net profit for the third quarter was 565-61 million yuan, up 235.22%-261.92% year on year; net profit was 112-120 million yuan in the first three quarters, up 273.61%-300.29% year on year. Comment: The doubling of performance this time is mainly due to the combination of national capital internet and mutual advertising. The company's information services+digital marketing business continues to grow at a high rate. The previous performance forecast for the third quarter was likely to meet our expectations for the whole year. 1. Mutual advertising was combined in the third quarter of '15, and the company's annual performance is expected to meet expectations. Guodu Internet became a wholly-owned subsidiary of the company in September 2014, and everything from January to September 2015 was included in the company's consolidated statements for the first three quarters; Mutual Advertising became a wholly-owned subsidiary of the company in June 2015, and has been included in the company's consolidated statements since July 2015. The company achieved net profit of about 120 million yuan in the first three quarters. It is estimated that in the fourth quarter, with the performance contribution of mutual advertising, the company is expected to reach the previously anticipated net profit of 194 million yuan throughout the year. 2. The explosion in SMS demand from enterprise customers benefiting from the company's information service business (subsidiary Guodu Internet) is expected to maintain a compound annual growth of 50%: although the overall demand for SMS is declining, benefiting from the rapid development of the Internet, the enterprise SMS segment will continue to grow rapidly in the next few years. Guodu Internet promised profits in 14-16:60 million, 75 million, and 90 million. The company's actual net profit of 79.74 million in 2014 greatly exceeded promises, while the first half of 2015 increased 48% year-on-year, maintaining a rapid growth trend. We expect this trend to continue in the next few years. 3. The company's digital marketing business (subsidiaries and mutual advertisers) has benefited from the rapid growth of the programmatic purchasing advertising industry, and is expected to achieve a compound growth of more than 50% in the next few years. The advent of programmatic purchasing has brought about a transformation from purchasing traffic to purchasing users. It is a revolutionary change in digital marketing. Its penetration rate is expected to double in the next three years, and the industry's compound growth rate is expected to exceed 60%. The company promised net profit of 1300 million, and 169 million dollars in 15-17. As a scarce independent SSP, mutual advertising is expected to achieve higher growth than expected by leveraging market first-mover advantages, differentiated media services, and data mining technology. A fixed increase of 1.2 billion dollars in the smart courier cabinet project is an extension of the company's Internet strategy, expanding from corporate SMS and digital marketing business to smart courier cabinet business. 1. The advantage of the company's investment in smart courier cabinets is that project construction will involve information communication and connection module construction, enterprise information module construction, advertising module construction, and courier cabinet design and manufacturing, etc., and all of the company's subsidiaries have rich industry experience. Integrate relevant resource advantages with technology and market advantages to give full play to synergies. 2. Smart courier cabinets are currently the main technical route for solving the “last mile”. They have great potential for development in terms of community O2O entry value. The “last mile” delivery dilemma has become a problem that needs to be solved urgently in the express delivery industry. Smart courier cabinets provide users with independent and convenient time, protect users' privacy, and at the same time improve courier delivery efficiency and reduce delivery costs. Compared with other terminal delivery models, mainly convenience stores, smart courier cabinets can occupy a mainstream position with the advantages of low cost, high service stability, and package handling volume. Under the forward-looking concept of seizing the entrance to the community, e-commerce giants, express delivery companies, etc. have set up one after another. 3. Based on our understanding and communication with the company, we believe that the company's investment in the smart delivery cabinet business is not about burning money, but rather exploring the business principle of prudent profit. Therefore, the market does not need to worry too much about the risk of large losses in this business in the future. Profit forecast and valuation: In the short term, the combined effects will drive explosive growth in the company's performance. In the long run, the company's SMS and digital marketing business will drive the company's high compound performance growth; the smart courier business will open up a broad space for the company's community O2O business; without considering the smart delivery cabinet business for the time being, we expect the company's EPS for 15-17 to be 0.61, 1.22, and 1.72 yuan, reaffirming the “buy” rating. Risk warning: competition in the Internet SMS industry is intensifying; the SSP industry is developing less than expected;

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