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国兴地产(000838)系列报告之四:前三季度净利超预期、业绩加速释放

興業證券 ·  Oct 13, 2015 00:00  · Researches

Key investment events: The company announced its performance forecast for the third quarter of 2015. It is expected that from January to September 2015, the company will achieve net profit of 76 million yuan, an increase of 81.5% over the previous year; of these, net profit of 8.5 million yuan in the third quarter and basic earnings per share of 0.047 yuan in a single quarter. Comment: Net profit for the first three quarters exceeded expectations, and performance was released at an accelerated pace. The company's performance forecast is to achieve net profit of 76 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2015, mainly due to the carry-over of some products in the Bei'an Jiangshan Project. The company predicts that net profit for the first three quarters will increase sharply by 81.5% year-on-year, mainly due to losses in the third quarter of 2014, and this year's settlement increased, leading to an increase in net profit growth. The North Shore Jiangshan Project was acquired earlier. The land cost was only 251 yuan/square meter, and the overall settlement margin was high. We expect that with the gradual settlement of the North Shore Jiangshan project, the company's performance will be released at an accelerated pace. Caixin Group is strong and rich in resources. At the same time, it attaches great importance to Guoxing Real Estate as its only listed company platform. Thanks to the strong strength of the majority shareholders, Guoxing Real Estate is making rapid progress in expanding new business. In August 2015, Caixin Group established a contract energy management company through joint investment. In September, the company cooperated with Pangu Group Co., Ltd. and Chongqing Kuoye Trading Co., Ltd. and agreed that the three parties would cooperate closely on the entire industry chain, including land acquisition, development, operation, and later stage entrepreneurship incubation and financial services for the “Internet+E-commerce Industrial Park” project. We firmly believe that in the future, Guoxing Real Estate will continue to benefit from Caixin Group's extensive resource layout and strong comprehensive strength. Investment advice: We are optimistic that the majority shareholders of Guoxing Real Estate will support the development of listed companies with abundant resources. It is estimated that the company's EPS in 2015, 2016, and 2017 will be 0.37, 0.47, and 0.55 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 50.8, 40.0, and 34.2 times, respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating. Risk warning: Future sales will fall short of expectations.

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