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中国武夷(000797)季报点评:受益北京环球影城公园建设

民生證券 ·  Oct 30, 2015 00:00  · Researches

The current business growth rate was slow, and profit margins declined in the first three quarters of 2015. The company's revenue was 1,514 billion yuan, +0.82% year over year, and net profit to mother was 72 million yuan, +5.54% year over year. The increase in the company's net profit was mainly due to the disposal of investment income from Huiquan Breweries shares, and net profit to mother after deduction fell 56.86% year on year. Construction of Universal Studios is about to begin. According to media sources, the Wuyi Garden South District project is approved by the National Development and Reform Commission, reviewed and approved by the Municipal People's Congress, written into the government work report and local planning project; a legal document has been signed with the US side; there are time schedule restrictions in the document. We believe that Universal Studios has invested heavily, and in the future, it will drive a large influx of tourist sales and the entry of related service agencies, and is expected to become a new tourist destination. From a regional perspective, Tongzhou's position as Beijing's satellite city and sleeping city is expected to change, and demand for housing within the region is expected to increase markedly. The company plans to develop the Wuyi Garden South Area project with a direct distance of about 7 km. As a scarce new development project in the region's future supply, it is expected to directly benefit. Although the sales price of the project was raised to 45,000 yuan/square meter, we are pessimistic about housing prices in Tongzhou in the short term after purchase restrictions. However, judging from transaction data, the upward trend in housing prices in the Wuyi Garden area has not been contained. According to Chainjia.com data, second-hand housing transaction prices in the Wuyi Garden area rose 3.66% month-on-month in September compared to the previous month, which is higher than the city average (1.23%). Looking at the land market, there has been a marked rise in land prices in Beijing since the fourth quarter. It has become common for land real estate prices to exceed second-hand housing prices in the surrounding area, further highlighting the scarcity of high-quality land. Judging from microscopic data, the transaction price of individual units in Wuyi Garden Lily Garden even exceeds 50,000 yuan/square meter. We raised the opening sales price target for the first phase of Wuyi Garden South District to 45,000 yuan/square meter. We estimate the potential value of the Wuyi Garden South District project to be around 30 billion yuan. Judging from recent research, construction of guaranteed housing in the southern district of Wuyi Garden has already started, but construction of the commercial housing section has not yet started. We believe the cost of the project is manageable, and the static cost is about 3.15 billion yuan. Property development, which is located in the center of Tongzhou's core area, is expected to become the main source of future company performance. Stock price catalyst and risk alert catalyst: Universal Studios construction commences, Tongzhou plans to issue risk alert: Housing prices fall short of expectations. Profit forecasts and investment suggestions We believe that as the Wuyi Garden South District project progresses, the company's future performance will improve markedly. The company's 2015-2017 EPS is expected to be 0.39/0.44/1.45 yuan respectively, maintaining a “highly recommended” investment rating.

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