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美邦服饰(002269)简报:仍处业绩调整阵痛期

光大證券 ·  Oct 28, 2015 00:00  · Researches

There was no improvement in performance. Net profit and loss in the first three quarters was 177 million yuan. From January to September 2015, the company achieved operating income of 4.328 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.80%, net profit of 177 million yuan, net profit after deduction of 192 million yuan, and EPS - 0.07 yuan. 2015Q3 revenue fell 8.78% year on year and net profit fell 273.55%, and the decline was slightly narrower than in the second quarter (2015Q2 revenue fell 11.22% year on year, net profit fell 284.71%). Decrease in gross margin, increase in cost ratio, gross profit margin: From January to September 2015, gross margin fell 3.23PCT to 44.05% year on year, mainly due to strong terminal discounts. On a quarterly basis, 15Q1-Q3 gross margins were 42.68% (-1.83PCT), 50.88% (-5.37PCT), and 41.07% (-3.10PCT), respectively. Expense rate: The fee rate for the period from January to September 2015 increased by 4.54PCT to 43.76% year on year, of which the sales expense ratio increased by 3.27PCT to 36.35%, mainly due to boosting sales and increasing discount strength; the management fee rate increased by 1.43PCT to 5.37%; and the financial expense ratio decreased by 0.17PCT to 2.04%. On a quarterly basis, sales, management, and finance expense ratios increased by 0.83 PCT, 0.24 PCT, and 0.26 PCT in 15Q1, and 9.23 PCT, 4.29 PCT, and -0.56PCT respectively in 15Q2, and 2.29 PCT, 0.95 PCT, and -0.34 PCT respectively in 15Q3. Other financial indicators: 1) Inventory increased 27.64% from the beginning of the year to 1,833 billion yuan, the inventory turnover ratio was 1.48, and inventory/revenue was 42.34%. The increase in inventories was mainly due to seasonal factors, which was a slight decrease from the same period last year. 2) Accounts receivable increased by 32.45% from the beginning of the year to 311 million yuan, mainly due to the fact that the company gave credit support to franchisees with good credit as it entered the peak of franchise distribution in the fall and winter. On September 9, 2015, the company announced that Dagong International Credit Assessment Co., Ltd. believes that the company's profit level will continue to face delays in franchise channel management adjustments in the short term. To protect the interests of investors, Dagong will continue to pay attention to the strategic transformation and daily business situation of Meibang Apparel, keep in touch with them, pay close attention to the subsequent impact that the decline in profit levels of Meibang Apparel may have on its credit level, and promptly disclose it to the market. We believe that although the Grand Duke did not adjust the company's external bonds and principal ratings, the announcement may have an impact on the company's new debt financing and investor confidence in the future. A fixed increase of no more than 9 billion yuan was accepted by the Securities Regulatory Commission. On July 2, 2015, the company announced a fixed increase plan to raise no more than 9 billion yuan for the “intelligent manufacturing” industry supply chain platform construction, O2O omni-channel platform construction, and Internet big data cloud platform center projects. The total investment of the project is 10.392 billion yuan. It is expected that the next 5 years will bring the company an average annual sales revenue increase of more than 30 billion yuan and an average annual net profit increase of more than 3.9 billion yuan. In order for the supply chain integration platform to drive the common development of all ends of the industry and help designer brands and small clothing enterprises with resource requirements grow, the company plans to enter the Internet finance industry through cooperation with third party financial companies in the future. On August 5, 2015, the application for the non-public offering of shares was accepted by the China Securities Regulatory Commission. Short-term performance is difficult to improve, and profit forecasts are lowered. The company expects the full year of 2015 to continue to lose money, with net profit between -450 million and 300 million yuan (net profit of 146 million yuan in 2014). We believe: 1) Since the adjustment of the company's franchise channel lags behind direct sales channels and franchise wholesale revenue continues to decline, it is expected that the Q4 performance will not be optimistic, the painful period of adjustment in the main business will continue, and we look forward to a recovery in subsequent performance. There is still uncertainty about whether franchise wholesale revenue will pick up in 2016; 2) In terms of liquidity, the company still has 1.9 billion yuan of ultra-short-term financing notes issued by the end of March 2017, and there are sufficient sources of short-term capital in the future; there is a large gap in capital requirements for fund-raising projects, so it is necessary to wait for the Securities Regulatory Commission to review and approve fixed increase projects; 3) E-commerce is expected to achieve 100% growth throughout the year. Since 2012, the company has taken Internet-based transformation and development as an important long-term strategy for the company. It has successively withdrawn subscription purchases, pioneered O2O operations, launched a model app, and established an increase of 9 billion dollars to deploy the Internet +. The company is resolute in its Internet transformation strategy. It has taken the lead in model innovation in the industry several times in history. Although the Internet+ transformation is becoming more and more clear, the period of model adjustment compounded by the period of industry adjustment inevitably causes performance pain. Considering that the performance is still in a period of loss, the 15-17 EPS was adjusted to -0.14, -0.01, and 0.01 yuan, and the rating was neutral. Risk warning: Performance recovery is slow, and fixed growth projects are not progressing as expected.

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