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国兴地产(000838)简评:业绩高速增长 转型空间巨大

民生證券 ·  Oct 26, 2015 00:00  · Researches

The company's performance is excellent, and future growth is guaranteed. The company's revenue for the first three quarters was 586 million yuan, up 65.25% year on year, and net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 76 million yuan, up 82.01% year on year. Cash received from sales of goods and provision of services in the first three quarters was 870 million yuan, an increase of 44.93% over the previous year, and advance payments at the end of the third quarter were 1,153 billion yuan, an increase of 50.17% over the end of the third quarter of 2014. Affected by the increase in settlement of projects such as the company's Guoxing Bei'an Jiangshan, etc., the company's performance in the first three quarters achieved rapid growth. Judging from the two indicators of cash inflow and advance payment, the company's sales also maintained high growth in the first three quarters, providing a guarantee for future performance growth. The real estate business is steady, and there is huge room for transformation. In terms of the real estate business, the company has a land reserve area of over 1.7 million square meters, an excellent location on the north bank of Guoxing, and the gross sales margin has remained above 40%. The sales amounts for the past three years have been 6.2 billion yuan, 900 million yuan, and 1.12 billion yuan respectively. We expect the saleable value to be around 5 billion yuan. At the same time, the company's projects in Tangcheng, Taizhou, and Shizhu have successively entered the development and sales process, and the company's real estate development business is likely to maintain rapid growth. In terms of transformation business, the company has now laid out emerging businesses such as e-commerce industrial parks and contract energy management. We believe that the e-commerce industrial park highlights the company's advantages in real estate development. It is expected that subsequent e-commerce industrial park specific projects will be released one after another. The partner for energy contract management is Caixin Environmental Protection, which is owned by the majority shareholder. On the one hand, it is also closely related to the optimization of resources within the group, and on the other hand, it is closely related to the real estate development business. The majority shareholders have a fixed cash increase of 1.04 billion yuan, and the company with unprecedented support completed a fixed cash increase of 1.04 billion yuan for the majority shareholders at the end of the third quarter. We believe that the fixed cash increase of 1.04 billion yuan by major shareholders will help the company maintain investment in real estate development and transformation business under the current small size. On the other hand, it also reflects the company's strong support for listed companies' platforms. We expect that the majority shareholder's incremental real estate development business will all be transferred to the platforms of listed companies, and the stock real estate business is also expected to gradually shift. At the same time, Caixin Group, the majority shareholder, has diversified business segments such as real estate, environmental protection, finance, and urban infrastructure investment and operation. Currently, listed companies have set up joint ventures with Caixin Environmental Protection, so it is not ruled out that there will be more room for cooperation in the future. Risk warning sales data falls short of expectations; new business development falls short of expectations. Profit forecast and investment advice We believe that the company's performance is relatively good, and it is expected that it will continue to maintain high growth in the future. While the real estate business remains steady, the layout of the emerging business is clear. At the same time, a fixed cash increase of 1.04 billion yuan for major shareholders has been completed, and more room for cooperation will not be ruled out in the future. The company's EPS for 2015-2017 is expected to be 0.54/0.68/0.90 yuan respectively, maintaining the “highly recommended” investment rating.

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