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长荣股份(300195)季报点评:汇率波动影响短期业绩 转型继续推进

廣發證券 ·  Oct 29, 2015 00:00  · Researches

Core view: From January to September 2015, the company achieved operating income of 780 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.1%; net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company was 118 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.6%, and EPS of 0.45 yuan; of these, from July to September, it achieved operating income of 307 million yuan, an increase of 23.4% year-on-year, but net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company was only 32 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 38.1%. The structure of the equipment business is being adjusted: From January to September, the company signed a total of 545 million yuan of orders, and the order in hand at the end of the period was 189 million yuan, a decrease from the end of June. After the company cooperated with Heidelberg, overseas sales channels were adjusted, which led to a decline in overseas revenue in the first half of the year, but it returned to normal after July. The tobacco label business is in line with expectations: from January to September, Shenzhen Liqun Printing achieved revenue of 315 million yuan, an increase of 33.8% over the same period last year. This is mainly due to the fact that it was included in the consolidated report for only May-September last year. The cloud printing business is progressing: the company's cloud printing business has basically been implemented, achieving a total revenue of nearly 40 million yuan by the end of the third quarter. Due to the rapid increase in the number of distributors, members, and order size, the company is currently speeding up the training of new employees to meet the needs of business growth and resolve bottlenecks in offline production capacity. Exchange rate factors affect short-term performance: The company applied for a medium- to long-term mortgage loan of 80 million US dollars due to investment in Guilian Holdings. Due to fluctuations in the US dollar exchange rate, the loan suffered an exchange loss of 20 million yuan, which is an important reason for the large decline in net profit in the third quarter. Profit forecast and investment recommendations: We forecast that the company will achieve operating income of 1,140, 1,384, and 1911 million yuan in 2015-2017, respectively, and EPS of 0.552, 0.722, and 1.091 yuan, respectively. The company has outstanding competitiveness in the post-press equipment market, and the potential for innovative business is huge. Based on the performance situation, we maintain the company's “buy” investment rating. Risk warning: risk of fluctuating demand for printing and packaging equipment; market development risk for new cloud printing business.

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