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恒宝股份(002104)季报点评:传统主业稳健增长 转型之路步步为营

海通證券 ·  Oct 28, 2015 00:00  · Researches

Investment highlights: Event: The company announced its 2015 three-quarter report. The third quarter achieved revenue of 487 million yuan, an increase of 20.22% over the previous year, and achieved net profit of 103 million yuan to mother, an increase of 27.53% over the previous year. The volume and price of financial IC cards increased and fell, and overall performance grew steadily. (1) We expect the financial IC card industry to grow by about 30% in 2015, with 800 million cards issued, and an average annual growth rate of about 20%; (2) Considering that Hengbao's market share is still rising steadily, the company's product shipments are expected to be around 140 million in 15 years, an increase of 40% over the previous year. At the same time, we are strongly optimistic that the company will be shortlisted in the postal, agricultural bank, and ICBC tenders in '16. It is expected that the shipment growth rate will remain above 30%; (3) As the market matures, we expect the unit price of products to drop by about 20% every year in 15-16, but the company will benefit from excellent cost control by 20% products Gross margin remains stable; (4) Considering that financial IC cards currently account for about 50% of the company's total revenue, the company's performance growth in the next two years is guaranteed. Tax control board shipments are growing strongly; at the same time, we are optimistic about the volume of mPOS and health card businesses in '16. (1) Driven by “business reform and growth”, demand in the tax control market surged in 2015. As more regional lifestyle service industries are included in the scope of business reform, the industry is expected to maintain a high boom in the next 2 years. We expect the company to ship about 1 or 1.3 million tax control panels in 15 and 16; (2) mPOS has met the rigid needs of small and micro merchants for payment, portability, and intelligent management. Currently, the industry's shipment volume is growing very fast. It is expected that the Hengbao MPos UnionPay inspection will pass soon; at the same time, we are optimistic that the promotion of health cards for local government residents will accelerate. 16 years in the company Expansion in these two areas will be an important source of incremental performance for 16 years. Internet financial services are progressing smoothly, and performance and entry are growing rapidly. (1) China has 60 million small, medium and micro merchants. Currently, O2O and Internet financial services for this market are expanding rapidly, driving the transformation and development of the company; (2) Excellent performance: We expect the subsidiary YicaEasy to achieve revenue of 35 million yuan and net profit of 15 million yuan in 2015, an increase of 150% over the previous year; (3) Rapid growth in imports: the number of stores covered by the OneCard Easy membership management system is expected to exceed 100,000 by the end of September, and is expected to cover 120,000 to 150,000 stores throughout the year; (4) As the number of entrances continues to grow, we are optimistic about corporate Internet finance; (4) As the number of entrances continues to grow, we are optimistic about corporate Internet finance; (4) As the number of entrances continues to grow, we are optimistic about the company's Internet finance The service is gradually monetized. The mobile payment market is laid out in multiple locations, and the transformation path is a step by step operation. Apple Pay's entry into China is expected to benefit the company's SWP-SIM card and TSM platform business. At the end of 2014, the company established a 500 million yuan mobile payment security industry fund. We are optimistic about the company's recent prospects for extended mergers and acquisitions in the field of payment security. At the same time, we are optimistic that the company will reach cooperation with operators and banks during the year to launch wearable device products with mobile payment functions. Maintain a “buy” rating. We expect the company's 15-17 sales revenue to be 20.93/28.47/3,560 billion yuan, corresponding net profit of 391/515/619 million yuan, and corresponding EPS of 0.55/0.72/0.87 yuan. Jin, gave a 12-month target price of 28.8 yuan (40 times PE in 2016), maintaining a “buy” rating. Risk factors: Financial IC card unit price declined further; tax control sales were lower than expected.

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