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吴通通讯(300292)季报点评:业绩符合预期 互联网新锐持续高增长

興業證券 ·  Oct 27, 2015 00:00  · Researches

Key investment events: The company recently released its three-quarter report. The company achieved total operating income of 1,038 billion yuan in the first three quarters, an increase of 139.07% over the previous year; and realized net profit attributable to the parent company of 116 million yuan, an increase of 286.72% over the previous year. Among them, net profit attributable to the parent company was 58 million in the third quarter, an increase of 241.18% over the previous year. Comment: The doubling of performance this time was mainly due to the merger of national capital networks and mutual advertising, and the company's information service+digital marketing business continued to grow at a high rate. According to the performance situation in the first three quarters, it is expected that in the fourth quarter, with the continuous contribution of mutual advertising performance, the company is expected to reach the net profit of 194 million yuan that we had previously anticipated throughout the year. 1. Mutual advertising began in July 2015. The digital marketing business achieved a net profit of 32 million yuan in the third quarter, accounting for 27.60% of the company's net profit. The performance of Huqong Advertising promises a net profit of 100 million yuan this year. Judging from the results for the first half of the year and the third quarter, the net profit for the whole year is expected to exceed 100 million yuan. Last year, Huzhong's net profit was 51.88 million yuan, and it is expected to increase by more than 100% year-on-year in 2015. 2. Guodu Internet has been a wholly-owned subsidiary of the company since September 2014, and everything from January to September 2015 was included in the company's consolidated statements for the first three quarters. Guodu's net profit for the first half of the year was 4.51 million, up 40% year over year. Net profit for the third quarter is estimated to exceed 20 million yuan, and the full year is expected to significantly exceed the previous performance promise of 75 million yuan. The company's information service business (mainly operated by Guodu Internet, a subsidiary of Guodu Internet) benefits enterprise customers, and the explosion of traffic services, which are expected to maintain a compound annual growth of 50%: although the overall scale of SMS demand is declining, benefiting from the rapid development of the Internet, the enterprise SMS segment will continue to grow rapidly in the next few years. Furthermore, in the context of operators speeding up and reducing fees and business transformation, the 10-billion-level enterprise traffic management market, as a new business increase, will significantly increase the scale of business in the national capital. Guodu Internet promised profits of 60 million, 75 million, and 90 million in 2016. The company's actual net profit of 79.74 million in 2014 greatly exceeded promises, while revenue in the first half of 2015 increased 48% year on year, maintaining a rapid growth trend. We expect this trend to continue in the next few years as the SMS and traffic business develops. 1. In terms of the short MMS business, the company is currently in the first tier of the industry. Guodu Internet already has Internet customers including Baidu, Sina, NetEase, 58 Tongcheng, Where to Go, Ctrip, Dazhong Review, Youku, LeTV, etc., as well as many high-quality group customers such as Haier and Samsung. Based on Guodu Internet's leading industry position, strong technical capabilities and good service quality and reputation, Guodu Internet's old customers have strong customer stickiness, and customer demand is growing steadily. In the future, the growth of enterprise SMS will come from two aspects: 1. Revenue from old customers such as the Agricultural Bank is promised to continue to show a steady growth trend during the year; 2. More importantly, the continuous development of Internet customers. 2. At present, the enterprise's backward traffic business is still in its infancy. For pioneers in the industry, this is a big enough piece of cake. The mobile traffic revenue scale of operators is estimated to be 500 billion to 600 billion dollars this year. If the enterprise's backward traffic conversion rate reaches 10% or more, this is also a market of more than 50 billion dollars. The company currently has a large number of high-quality customer resources. As a pioneer in the traffic business market, it is already developing the traffic business. The traffic business is expected to be at the level of tens of millions this year, and will develop on a larger scale next year. The company's digital marketing business (subsidiaries run by mutual advertisers), benefiting from the rapidly growing programmatic purchasing advertising industry, is expected to achieve a compound growth of more than 50% in the next few years. The advent of programmatic purchasing advertising has brought about a transformation from purchasing traffic to purchasing users. It is a revolutionary change in digital marketing. Its penetration rate is expected to double in the next three years, and the industry's compound growth rate is expected to exceed 60%. The company promised net profit of $130 million and $169 million for 15-17 years. As a scarce independent SSP, mutual advertising is expected to achieve higher growth than expected by leveraging first-mover market advantage, differentiated media services, and data mining technology. 1. Mutual mass advertising uses a media exclusion model. The gross profit is higher, and the profitability is significantly higher than that of advertising agencies. From 22% in 2013 to 44% in 2014, the net profit margin reached a level of more than 20%. The company uses a media exclusion model, that is, advertising traffic is exclusively procured from the media with CPM, and then sold to advertisers on the DSP side through ADX through CPC. The price of media traffic sold by the company is 40% higher than the price sold by the media itself, which can significantly increase media value. 2. Future business development is mainly based on two aspects: 1. In terms of resources, the company continues to expand the long-tail traffic of second- and third-tier media, and currently has more than 100 media partners. 2. On the customer side, continue to expand advertising trading platforms other than Google and Baidu, including Taobao's TANX, Tencent's Tencent Ad Exchange and more other advertising trading platforms. The company terminated the fixed increase smart courier cabinet project, focusing on the Internet asset-light business with rapid growth in performance, which is beneficial to long-term development. In September, the company announced a fixed increase of 1.2 billion yuan to expand the smart courier cabinet business. The market is worried that the early development of the smart courier cabinet market will require a large amount of capital. At the time, based on our understanding and communication with the company, we believed that the company's investment in the smart courier cabinet business was not about burning money, but rather exploring the business principle of prudent profit. Therefore, the market did not need to worry too much about the risk of large losses in this business in the future. The company recently announced the termination of the fixed increase project due to consideration of the interests of the company and investors, which is also in line with our previous judgment. The company is relatively prudent and cautious in developing new business. The future will continue to focus on the Internet asset-light business, and the trend of high performance growth is expected to continue. Profit forecasting and valuation in the short term, combined effects will drive the company's performance to explode; in the long run, the rapidly growing corporate SMS and digital marketing business will drive the company's performance to compound high growth in the next few years; the enterprise SMS+traffic SMS business is expected to maintain a compound annual growth of 50%. The digital marketing business benefits from the rapidly growing programmatic purchasing advertising industry, and is expected to achieve a compound growth of more than 50% in the next few years. The company has successfully transformed from a communications device vendor to a leading enterprise in information services and digital marketing through acquisitions. Both businesses are facing high growth opportunities, driving the company to become a rising Internet newcomer. We expect the company's EPS for 15-17 to be 0.61, 1.22, and 1.72 yuan, reaffirming the “buy” rating. Risks suggest that competition in the Internet SMS industry is intensifying; the development of the SSP industry falls short of expectations;

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