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大连电瓷(002606)季报点评:业绩增长兑现 特高压中标量阶段性低于预期

國金證券 ·  Oct 28, 2015 00:00  · Researches

Performance summary From January to September 2015, the company's main business revenue was 412 million yuan, down 3.08% year on year; net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 17.259 million yuan, EPS 0.09 yuan/share, up 12.5% year on year. Among them, the main business revenue for the third quarter was 230 million yuan, up 50.42% year on year; net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 29.926 million yuan, up 400.14% year on year, business analysis accelerated delivery in the third quarter, and performance increased from loss to loss in line with expectations: in the 2015 mid-year report, the company's net profit was a loss of 134.383 million yuan, mainly due to adjustments in the construction schedule of some sections of the “Huainan - Shanghai” AC UHV and “Ningdong-Shaoxing” DC transmission line sections, and a large number of products were unable to be delivered. Delivery accelerated in the third quarter, and the company's performance returned to normal. In addition to confirmed revenue growth, along with the increase in the share of UHV products, gross margin recovered from 26.42% in the interim report to 31.52%, the same level as last year. We judge that with the delivery of “Ximeng-Shandong” and other routes in the fourth quarter, there is room for further improvement in gross margin. The volume of DC UHV in October fell short of expectations: On October 24, the company announced that in the State Grid Jiuquan-Hunan, Jinbei-Nanjing ±800 kV UHVDC transmission line project, it won the bid for package 4, 68,550 porcelain insulators in advance, for an amount of 40 million yuan. According to our analysis, the market share of the company won the bid this time, which is about 17%, which is lower than expected (the Ningdong-Shaoxing line is 36.4%). The main reason is that the company made a mistake in the pricing strategy for this bid. We believe that in subsequent tenders, by improving the pricing strategy, the company's market share will rise, but based on the results of this tender, we have lowered the company's 2016 profit forecast. The popularity of UHV remains high, and the company's performance is very flexible: we judge that excluding the “four traffic and three direct lines” under construction, the domestic UHV line to be approved is “four traffic and 12 direct.” Furthermore, in the context of building a “global energy internet,” the State Grid Corporation has conducted preliminary UHV discussions with power companies in Pakistan, Mongolia, Kazakhstan, Ethiopia, Kenya, Russia, Indonesia and other countries. Some countries have already begun preliminary work, and the number of DC UHVs will continue to grow in the future. Profit adjustments and investment recommendations Based on the company's recent UHV bid winning situation, we have lowered our 2016 profit forecast. The 2015-2017 EPS is 0.217,0.263,0.377, with a target price of 15.2 yuan, corresponding to 70x PE in 2015. Risk suggests that the number of newly built UHV lines is lower than expected, the market share fluctuates, and the share of porcelain insulators is declining

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