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同方泰德(1206.HK)点评:疑虑消除;新业务带动增长

招商證券(香港) ·  Nov 4, 2015 00:00  · Researches

We believe that Zana's sale of the remaining shares should help improve the circulation of Tongfang Ted's shares, and that the expansion strategy of Tongfang Ted will not affect Tongfang Ted's expansion strategy, and the progress of energy saving business integration is progressing well. We expect the profit growth of the newly acquired business segment to reach 30%/32% year-on-year in 2015/16. We expect the company's overall profit growth in 2015/16 to reach 31%/30% (after acquisition), maintaining the buying rating. The target price is HK$8.20, equivalent to 16 times that of 2016 (including profit per share after acquisition), predicting that the sale of shares by price-earnings ratio funds will help improve share circulation and have no impact on business operations. According to the records of the Central Clearing System, Zana China Fund, a private equity investor with Fong Ted, last week About 47.4 million shares were sold at HK$4.81 per share, accounting for about 6.1% of the total issued share capital of Tongfang Ted. After this sale, Zana has sold all of its shares in the same party, Ted, in accordance with its internal investment decisions. Zana's exit had no impact on Ted's business operations and further expansion strategies. Moreover, we believe Zana's sale of shares will help improve the circulation of Tongfang Ted's shares. The new business led to strong profit growth. After acquiring environmental monitoring business related to intelligent rail transit, construction, and heating from the parent company, Tongfang Ted held 40% of the market share in the environmental monitoring system business for rail transit and 50% in the environmental monitoring system business for heating in the Northeast region. The business segment acquired by the company recorded a net profit of about 35 million yuan (RMB, same below) (equivalent to 5.6 million US dollars) in 2014. We expect that with the rapid growth of the rail transit division and the support of more EMC (energy management contract) projects in the future, the net profit of the new business in 2015 will increase 30% year over year to 46 million yuan (equivalent to 7.3 million US dollars). We forecast that the company's net profit in 2015/16 will increase to 39 million/51 million US dollars (after acquisition) (Figure 2), which is equivalent to a 22%/23% increase in net profit over the same period last year. The current valuation of shares is 9.6 times that of 2016 (including profit per share after acquisition) predicts an overall price-earnings ratio of 46% compared to environment-related peers (18 times). Our target price-earnings ratio is 16 times (including profit per share after acquisition), which is equivalent to 15% off the average value of our peers. Dispel doubts; maintain buying ratings. We believe the Chinese government will introduce policies to support energy saving and environmental protection during the “13th Five-Year Plan” period. Tongfang Tide will continue to benefit from the rapid development of the industry. Concerns about Zana's exit have been removed, profits can be expected to grow at a high rate, so we recommend investors buy when stock prices are low. We maintain our target price of HK$8.20, which is equivalent to a price-earnings ratio of 16 times in 2016 (after acquisition, after acquisition).

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