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天津创业环保(1065.HK):量价齐升推动三季度业绩高于预期;买入创业环保H股

高華證券 ·  Oct 30, 2015 00:00  · Researches

In terms of inconsistency with forecasts, the results announced by Entrepreneurship and Environmental Protection for the first nine months of 2015 fell short of our expectations. Net profit increased 28% year over year to RMB 327 million. Revenue increased 12% year over year to RMB 1.5 billion, mainly due to rising wastewater utilization rates and treatment prices. Lower electricity prices and improved efficiency led to a 1 percentage point increase in gross margin to 46%. The cash balance rose 74% from the end of 2014 to RMB 1.4 billion, due to the fact that the company recovered a total of RMB 1.89 billion in outstanding sewage treatment service fees from the Tianjin Municipal Drainage Company. Investments influence us to adjust the model to reflect the fact that third-quarter results were better than expected and higher water price assumptions, and we raised our 2015-20 profit forecast by 5-20%. We also expect that the fourth quarter results will strengthen as more stringent regulations drive up demand for wastewater treatment and further reforms in water prices. The current stock price of Venture Environmental H shares corresponds to the expected price-earnings ratio/net market ratio for 2016 of 16.4 times/1.4 times, which is at the lowest level among environmental protection stocks within our research scope. We maintain our buy/sell rating for Venture Eco H Shares/A Shares, and based on the adjusted forecast, we raised our 12-month target price by 5% from HK$6.1/RMB 4.9 to HK$6.4/RMB 5.1. We still value this stock using the exit price-earnings ratio. We first calculate a reasonable stock price for 2020, then use 9.5% and 9.0% of equity cost discounts for H shares and A shares, respectively, back to 2016. Among them, the 2020 stock price is calculated by multiplying our 2020 earnings per share forecast by 19.3 times the target price-earnings ratio for 2020; while the target price-earnings ratio of 19.3 times is the average price-earnings ratio of comparable international companies from 1991 to 2014. Downside risk: Unexpected disruption of normal business operations; potential loss of bad debts.

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