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长荣股份(300195)季报点评:受累人民币贬值业绩低于预期

中金公司 ·  Oct 26, 2015 00:00  · Researches

The performance was slightly lower than expected. The company's revenue for the first three quarters of this year was 781 million yuan, an increase of 25.07% over the same period of the previous year; net profit to mother was 118 million yuan, an increase of 0.60% over the same period last year. The company's revenue for the 3Q15 quarter was 307 million yuan, up 23.40% from the same period last year; net profit to mother was 317.457 million yuan, down 38.12% from the same period last year. Balance sheet: 1) The balance at the end of the long-term loan period increased by 511 million yuan compared to the beginning of the year, mainly due to the company's loan of 80 million US dollars to acquire part of Guilian Holdings; 2) The advance payments increased by 6.29 million yuan compared to the balance at the beginning of the year, an increase of 35.63%, mainly due to the increase in pre-received payments from subsidiaries Zhende, Changrong Digital, and Jianhao Cloud. Profit statement: 1) Revenue growth is mainly due to the combined revenue of the January-September power group of 315 million yuan, compared to May to September last year. 2) Investment income increased by 5.85 million yuan over the same period last year, mainly investment income confirmed by purchasing 15.98% of Guilian Holdings shares in accordance with the Equity Law. 3) New loans of $80 million were added this quarter, due to RMB depreciation and exchange losses of 19.71 million yuan. Cash flow statement: Investment activities paid 462 million yuan in cash, mainly due to the purchase of 15.98% of Guilian Holdings shares. The development trend is that equipment has declined slightly, depending on the increase in exports and the expansion of smart devices next year. The outlook for printing equipment for the whole year may fall short of expectations, but with the deepening of cooperation with Heidelberg, equipment exports are expected to grow next year, thus driving equipment to resume growth. Furthermore, the smart factory cooperation project with Guilian Holdings is expected to confirm part of the revenue, while the smart factory program is expected to replicate and expand. Cloud Printing continues in the 3Q off-season, and the 4Q peak season is expected to grow at a high rate. Revenue for the first 3 quarters was 40 million, and although 3Q was a low season, revenue of nearly 20 million was achieved. Looking ahead to the peak season at the end of the year, 4Q revenue is expected to increase significantly from month to month. The profit forecast was adjusted to reduce 2015/16 net profit by 12.9% and 9.7% to 199 million yuan and 272 million yuan. The corresponding EPS was 059 and 0.80 yuan, respectively. The P/E for Valuation and Recommendation 2015/16 was 39.3x and 28.8x, respectively, maintaining the recommended rating. The target price was reduced from 34.4 yuan to 28 yuan (corresponding to 35x P/E in 2016). Risk Cloud Printing's expansion fell short of expectations, and printing equipment exports fell short of expectations.

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