Main points of investment
Matters: the company announced three quarterly reports that from January to September, the operating income was 432 million yuan and the net profit was 20.22 million yuan, down 21% and 43% respectively from the same period last year, realizing EPS 0.08 yuan. Peace viewpoint:
Affected by the adjustment of Beijing's industrial positioning, the company's profits have declined significantly: due to the adjustment of Beijing's industrial positioning, the number of industrial land entering the market has shrunk significantly since 2014. Affected by this, the company, as the main industrial land development unit, suffered a negative impact on its profits, resulting in a decline in revenue and profits to a certain extent.
The management actively seeks change and definitely introduces CDF: it is precisely aware of the business impact brought about by the adjustment of Beijing's industrial positioning that the company plans to introduce strategic investors through a non-public offering of 48 million shares to CDF and raise 600 million yuan. After the completion of the additional issuance, the share of CDC Financial accounts for 16%. This additional plan has been agreed by SASAC in principle, and the introduction of CDF through this additional offering will promote the transformation and upgrading of the company's existing business.
From a land developer to a comprehensive real estate operator. The company still has more than 4000 mu of land in the airport area, which will form a new type of industrial cluster with the airport economic zone as the core in the future. At present, there are more than 2200 enterprises, mainly aviation logistics, electronic information, cultural and creative enterprises. We judge that with the entry of CDF, the company will actively participate in small and medium-sized companies, or provide financial services for small and medium-sized enterprises, and change to integrated real estate operators through industrial integration. At the same time, the major shareholder level will integrate the three parks into the air-facing core economic zone, which will also provide more space for the future development of the company.
Profit forecast: due to the decline in previous profits, the company's market capitalization is currently the smallest of its kind. We estimate that the EPS of the company from 2015 to 2016 will be 0.20 and 0.25 yuan respectively, corresponding to 75 times the PE in 2015, which is equal to the average of the enterprise industry in the park. Considering that the introduction of CDF is of inflection point to the company's operation and management, at the same time, the company's first-level development reserves and enterprise resources will also support the company's business upgrading and development in the future, and maintain a strongly recommended rating.
Risk Tip: the company's IPO process is not as expected.
