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金鸿能源(000669)季报点评:Q3净利增速率先转正 全年持续改善可期

民生證券 ·  Oct 29, 2015 00:00  · Researches

I. Overview of the incident: The company released the 2015 three-quarter report. Revenue for the first three quarters of 2015 was 1.78 billion yuan, up 3.37% year on year, achieved net profit of 220 million yuan, a decrease of 7.7% year on year, and basic earnings per share were 0.4467 yuan. Q3 revenue in a single quarter was 630 million yuan, down 0.33% year on year, and net profit was 74.31 million yuan, up 2.2% year on year. The results were generally in line with expectations. 2. Analysis and judgment: The net profit growth rate in Q3 was the first to correct, and Q4 is expected to continue to improve. The company has many industrial customers such as downstream steel mills. Due to falling demand, the company's gas sales did not increase significantly even in the context of a 0.44 yuan/square meter reduction in the first half of the year. The company's net profit growth rate in Q3 was the first to correct in a single quarter. Revenue and net profit both improved slightly from month to month. It is expected that in Q4, as gas prices are further lowered, gross profit from engineering installation returns to normal levels, and environmental revenue is confirmed, the company's performance will continue to improve. Gas sales are expected to increase 15% by nearly 700 million square meters in 2015, and the Winter Olympics are expected to drive a significant increase in the company's gas sales. The company's gas sales volume is expected to be about 700 million square meters in 2015, an increase of about 15%. The newly built gas transmission capacity is over 900 million square meters, and the 2022 Winter Olympics are expected to drive a significant increase in gas sales of the gas supply line. The company's future gas volume growth mainly comes from: South China: The Shuikoushan National Nonferrous Metals Base in Hengyang is expected to be put into operation in the second half of 2015. Minmetals Group's smelting project will be put into operation from September to October 2015. The first phase will use about 30 million square meters of gas, and the second phase will use 70 million square meters. Changning's ceramic industrial park will also be put into operation as soon as the end of the year. East China: Shandong is mainly an industrial user, and gas sales are expected to grow rapidly due to the convergence of gas prices. The distributed energy project in Feicheng, Shandong has been put into operation, with a daily gas capacity of about 10,000 square meters. North China: Previously, Zhangjiakou was an empty market and has great potential for gas use. Demand is expected to reach about 400 million square meters from 2017 to 2018. The first phase of the Shahe project is 100 million square meters, and the second phase is 200 million square meters, which is expected to have a positive impact on the company's performance in 2016 and 2017. The base has more than 400 glass-related enterprises, and the demand potential for natural gas is huge, and the long-term (3-year) demand is around 400 million square meters. Gas stations: The company has now built 25 gas stations (self-built), and is expected to reach 40 by the end of 2016. The difference in CNG gas prices is generally around 0.7 to 0.8 yuan, and we expect gas sales to be close to 100 million square meters in 2015. Oil prices are low, demand is poor, and the window for further reduction in natural gas prices has arrived. Currently, natural gas is less economical than alternative energy. This is contrary to the country's policy of increasing the share of clean energy consumption, and a further reduction in gas prices is imperative. The price adjustment is expected to be around the beginning of November, with a range of about 0.4 yuan/square meter. The cumulative reduction in gas prices is expected to reach 0.8 yuan/square meter during the year, and there is room for further reduction. Gas prices entering a downward channel are expected to drive a gradual improvement in downstream demand growth. The environmental protection business is determined to grow at a high rate throughout the year, which will become the company's new growth engine. Due to the progress of the order project, revenue related to the environmental protection business in the first half of the year could not be confirmed during the reporting period, leading to a year-on-year decline in profits. We judge that the second half of the year is the peak period for confirmed revenue from the company's environmental protection business. High growth is determined throughout the year. The net profit is expected to be around 70 million, an increase of more than 50%. The flue gas desulfurization and denitrification transformation has a high synergy effect with the company's main business and will become the company's key development direction. It is expected that the company will combine endogenous growth and epitaxial expansion to achieve rapid growth in this business. A scarce upstream, middle and downstream integrated urban combustion company with strong offsite expansion capabilities. Gas companies have a natural monopoly, and their ability to expand offsite will ultimately determine the company's growth space. The company is the only A-share urban fuel company with pipelines across provincial governors. It has now completed the layout in South China, East China, and North China, and has also made progress in market development in the Northeast and Shaanxi regions. It is a scarce target with strong offsite expansion capabilities. Against the backdrop that the shortage of gas sources in China is difficult to improve in the short term, the ability to obtain gas sources is also an important factor limiting the development of urban combustion companies. The company has a gas supply capacity of 3 billion square meters, and the company has maintained a good cooperative relationship with CNPC. Currently, the agreed gas supply volume is about 1.9 billion square meters, which fully guarantees the company's gas supply. The company's 25% stake in the Riverlake coalbed methane project is expected to complete exploration work by the end of the year, and the company will become an integrated upstream, middle and downstream urban combustion company. Risk warning: Gas sales and project installation revenue are lower than expected. Profit forecasts and investment recommendations estimate the company's 2015-2017 EPS to be 0.76 yuan, 1.03 yuan, 1.41 yuan, respectively. The corresponding PE is 28 times, 21 times, and 15 times, respectively. The company's targets are scarce, expectations for epitaxial expansion are strong, and it maintains a “highly recommended” rating.

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