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贵州百灵(002424)深度研究:苗药龙头 由药而医 多点布局

東吳證券 ·  Nov 22, 2015 00:00  · Researches

Key points of investment A stable position as a leader in medicine: the inheritance of national culture and the abundance of natural resources have given the company a unique advantage in the development of medicinal herbs. In the five years since the market was marketed, the number of drug products has grown from the initial 6 to the current 17. The company has maintained a leading position in the sales volume of Miao drugs, and has now become a key enterprise in the new pharmaceutical industry in Guizhou Province and the largest pharmaceutical development and production enterprise in the country. Continued release of Yindan Xinnaotong softgels: Yindan Xinnaotong is the company's main profitable product. As of the first half of 2015, it achieved sales revenue of 242 million yuan, an increase of 16.35% over the same period last year. With the rapid growth in the size of the cardiovascular and cerebrovascular drug market in China and the development of the company's hospital sales channels, the market position of this product will gradually improve, and the development prospects are promising. Coupled with the expansion of the company's production capacity of 5 billion softgels, there is still plenty of market space and potential for growth in the future. Expanding Dengning Communications and Establishing Diabetes Hospitals to Promote Companies from Medicine to Medicine: Up to now, Tang Ning Connect has been approved for transfer use in 11 medical institutions in the province, and the scope of transfer use will continue to be increased next year. A number of agreements recently signed by the company are conducive to expanding contacts between sugar and mining, especially cooperation with Tencent, and have a positive effect on improving the company's valuation. The company will use the Internet, in conjunction with Tencent's “Tencent? The “Sugar Doctor” blood sugar meter developed the “Bailing Diabetes Hospital Doctor-Patient Management Platform” system, realized electronic management of patient files, and carried out in-depth chronic disease management work in Guizhou Province. Currently, the Tangning Communication Project has cooperated with the University of Hong Kong and West China Hospital of Sichuan University. Furthermore, the company has already set up a Bailing TCM diabetes hospital in Guiyang City and plans to establish a second hospital in Changsha. It is gradually implementing “medicine” while “medicine” is preferred over “medicine.” Active research and development, multi-point layout: The company will rapidly advance R&D projects and have a layout for various diseases. Key research and development projects include glycosinate, tefentaine, and epirubicin liposomes. Among them, telfentam is a chemical drug for the treatment of hepatitis B that has obtained a US patent and is currently in phase I clinical trials; epixorubicin liposome is an antibiotic anti-tumor drug and is currently in the pre-clinical research stage. Profit forecast: We are optimistic about Yindan's breakthrough in stock next year and the incremental achievement of the Sugar Nation Network. We expect the company's 2015/2016/2017 EPS to be 0.74/0.82/0.90, and the corresponding PE will be 36 times/33 times/30 times. For the first time, an investment rating of “increased holdings” was given. Risk warning: sales of Yindan Xinnaotong softgels have declined; market promotion of Tangning Tongluo capsules has fallen short of expectations; R&D projects have been delayed, etc.

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