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新大洲A(000571)季报点评:减税助摩托盈利上升 并购搭建转型之路

國泰君安 ·  Oct 30, 2015 00:00  · Researches

Guide to this report: Tax relief increased the profit of the motorcycle business, set up a merger and acquisition fund to transform medical care, lowered the target price by 7.5 yuan, and increased holdings. Key investment points: Motor vehicle tax relief helps increase profits, and mergers and acquisitions of yacht assets pave the way for transformation. The company's 2015 Q3 revenue was 659 million yuan, down 1.1% from the same period, and attributable net profit was 113 million yuan, down 17.3% from the same period. The performance was in line with expectations. Considering that the company's motorcycle business benefits from tax relief and rapid growth in electric vehicle terminal sales, effectively hedging the risk of falling coal prices, we maintain the company's 2015/16 EPS forecast of 0.08 and 0.10 yuan unchanged. Also, consider that the company integrates yachts and medical resources through an extension method to steadily advance the pace of transformation. Referring to the valuation of comparable companies at this stage, the company was given 94 times PE in 15 years, lowered the target price to 7.5 yuan (originally 15 yuan), and maintained an increase in holdings rating. The contribution performance of the coal business was limited, and the motorcycle business showed bright spots. The company's main coal operator, Wujiu Group, had Q3 revenue of 328 million yuan in 2015, a decrease of 21%, and contributed 3.46 million yuan to net profit, a decrease of 84%. The sharp decline in coal sales volume and price and resource tax reform were the main reasons for the rapid decline in profits. However, the motorcycle business has been revitalized through marketing reforms and tax incentives. On the one hand, the traditional business, Q3 contributed 85.63 million yuan, an increase of 12.2% over the previous year; on the other hand, the sales volume of electric vehicles grew rapidly. Q3 achieved 90,200 vehicle sales, an increase of 87.8%, and achieved revenue of 138 million yuan (the profit and loss balance point has not yet been reached). With the gradual release of subsequent production capacity, the business is expected to be profitable. Extend and integrate resources to aid transformation, and yachting and medical care are potential directions. The company announced that it plans to acquire 60% of the shares of the Simpson Yacht Group in three phases to strengthen the company's layout on the yacht side. If the acquisition is completed, it will increase the company's revenue by HK$477 million and increase attributable net profit of HK$9.43 million (based on data for the year 14). Furthermore, the company cooperated with Zhongyu Capital to establish a 3 billion yuan medical merger and acquisition fund to seek high-quality targets in specialist hospital operations, medical devices, etc., to help the company transform to the medical side. Risk Warning: Coal Prices Continue to Fall, Health Care Transformation Progress Is Lower Than Expected

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