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万方发展(000638)季报点评:转型持续推进、员工持股呵护成长

華泰證券 ·  Oct 29, 2015 00:00  · Researches

1) Performance declined due to the reduction in the scale of the subsidiary Shengtai's trade business. The company's performance declined sharply during the reporting period, mainly due to the negative impact of the domestic economic environment and industry sentiment, as the subsidiary Shengtai Economic and Trade declined in business scale and gross profit. The company increased its marketing accordingly to hedge against the risk of declining performance, and the results gradually became apparent. Q3 revenue fell 7.07%, and the decline narrowed month-on-month (Q2 -38.93% YoY), Q3 net profit was 620,000, and continued to improve month-on-month (Q1 loss of 5.1679 million, Q2 loss 1.86 million). During the reporting period, sales expenses increased by 48.14% due to increased marketing, management expenses decreased by 30.25% due to reduced management personnel and sale of subsidiaries, and financial expenses decreased by 57.01% due to increased interest. It is expected that the company's performance in the fourth quarter will continue to improve month-on-month, and the main business operations will be stable and manageable. 2) Transformational medicine and health continue to advance. The company's current real estate business has significant performance bottlenecks, and it is strategically determined to shift from real estate to medicine. The company plans to invest in Shang Xiang Network and Yifan Network (card pharmaceutical e-commerce platform and online medical treatment with scarce resources), and also intends to acquire the Group's assets for many years - Harmonious Rehabilitation Hospital (specialized in treating cerebral palsy) to complement online and offline medical resources. At the same time, we are actively using capital strength to speed up the layout of the health sector, cooperating with Beijing's top private banks and Queshan Investment to establish mergers and acquisitions fund management companies, explore big health opportunities, and further promote the transformation of the company's business from the real estate industry to the pharmaceutical industry. 3) The employee stock ownership plan achieves unity of interest and is conducive to the long-term development of the company. The company implements employee stock ownership plans to combine the interests of the company and core employees, attract and retain outstanding management talents and business backbone, stimulate energy, and inject strength into the company's long-term development. Valuation rating: As a model of transformation from real estate to medicine, the company has broken through the limitations of industry development, actively expanded the medical and health care layout externally, continuously optimized the governance structure, improved incentives, opened up room for future growth, and enjoyed high premiums. It is estimated that EPS will be 0.01 yuan, 0.02 yuan, and 0.03 yuan respectively in 15-17 years, maintaining an increase rating. Risk warning: The progress of the big health sector layout is lower than expected.

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