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恒宝股份(002104)点评:互联网金融布局完成重要一步 高估值可期!

海通證券 ·  Oct 29, 2015 00:00  · Researches

Investment highlights: Event: The company announced on the evening of the 28th that the company's mPOS products have passed UnionPay and bank inspection tests. The company's Internet finance layout has completed an important step, and it is expected that the next 3 years will usher in strong growth in the performance and number of data portals in the next 3 years. (1) mPOS is not only a smart POS terminal, but also a data entry point for the company's Internet financial products; (2) the One Card Easy membership marketing system is currently promoted through pure online channels, benefiting from the rapid expansion of the SaaS service market for small and micro merchants, and its performance and entry volume have doubled in 14/15; (3) Hengbao mPOS has passed the UnionPay test and is expected to soon enter the promotion stage in pilot cities. The one-card easy membership marketing system is expected to use bank POS to set up channels and accelerate the promotion of people's livelihood projects online and offline. ! (4) We expect the One Card Easy membership marketing system to enter a rapid expansion path in the next 3 years. Considering that the One Card Easy system will cover 120,000 to 150,000 stores by the end of 2015, the company's proposed goal of covering 1 million merchants and 160 million consumers over 3 years is already far away! The company will build a “regional business district+big data service+internet finance” ecosystem based on this. mPOS will significantly drive the company's performance growth over the next two years and further optimize the traditional main business structure. (1) Driven by the needs of merchants for convenient payments and intelligent management, China's mPOS market currently sells millions of units a year and maintains a rapid expansion trend, and is gradually replacing traditional POS as a new generation of mainstream offline payment solutions; (2) the company has established a strong supplier relationship with almost all major domestic commercial banks, such as China Agricultural Industrial and Industrial Construction, etc., and the company's mPOS is expected to use bank POS channels and government livelihood and welfare projects to achieve large-scale promotion. Currently, the unit price of mPOS is about 200 yuan, taking into account the current annual mPOS sales volume of traditional manufacturers They are all over one million units, and it is expected that next year the business will contribute more than 150 million yuan in revenue and more than 40 million in net profit; (3) in '16 and 17, the increase in the company's main business performance will mainly come from new high-margin products such as mPOS+ tax control board+residents' health cards, etc., and the overall business structure will be further optimized. The company's transformation into the Internet finance business is progressing smoothly, and mobile payment services are likely to be implemented by the end of the year. The company's transformation from a traditional manufacturing enterprise to a “product” + “service” integrated enterprise is progressing steadily. High valuations can be expected, so I strongly recommend paying attention! Maintain a “buy” rating. We expect the company's sales revenue for 15-17 to be 20.93/28.47/3,560 billion yuan, corresponding net profit of 3.91/5.15/619 billion yuan, and corresponding EPS of 0.55/0.72/0.87 yuan. The target price for 12 months was 28.8 yuan (40 times PE in 2016) to maintain the “buy” rating. Risk Factors: The progress of mPOS promotion is falling short of expectations.

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