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京投银泰(600683)深度报告:七年之痒后何去何从?

東興證券 ·  Oct 29, 2015 00:00  · Researches

Report summary: The company's performance will experience explosive growth. The company's projects are basically located in Beijing, which has the best relationship between supply and demand in the market. It relies on the majority shareholders to seize opportunities and have core competitiveness in the field of developing properties built on rail transit. Currently, successfully developed superproperty projects entered the market one after another in 2013. The growth rates of contract sales in 2013 and 2014 were 144.2% and 191.85% respectively. The contract amount is expected to reach 9 billion yuan in 2015, with an average annual compound growth of 108.01% over the past three years. The development of rail transit between Beijing and Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei has brought huge market space. It is estimated that by 2020, the operating mileage of Beijing rail transit will reach about 1000 kilometers, and the new mileage of rail transit in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region will exceed 2,000 kilometers. We estimate that by 2020, the total superstructure area of Beijing and Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei rail transit will be about 10 million square meters, of which about 6 million square meters within Beijing and 4 million square meters outside Beijing. The company has a strong advantage and is expected to obtain a share of 5 million square meters, and reserves will more than double. Where did it go after seven years of itch? The original shareholding ratio of the company's top two stocks, Tokyo Investment Group and China Yintai, is very close, but the actual support for listed companies is not symmetrical. This governance structure is not conducive to the long-term development of listed companies, but after seven years of cooperation between the two major shareholders, there is a possibility that China Yintai will gradually withdraw. Currently, China Yintai has transferred most of its shares to natural persons within the group, reducing future holdings reduction costs at least in terms of taxation. We believe that the successive reduction of China Yintai's holdings and the continued increase of Beijing Investment Group's holdings is the best way to achieve a win-win situation. If the company forms a unique governance structure, it will be more conducive to future capital operation and performance release. Investment advice. Benefiting from rail transit construction plans inside and outside Beijing, and with changes in the company's equity structure, combined with the group company's strong support and construction of information and technology comparative advantages, the company will usher in external opportunities for rapid development of rail construction properties. The company's NAV is $10.75, which is 21% off the current stock price; the relative valuation is $17.10. We expect earnings per share for 15-17 to be $0.37, $0.57, and $0.80, respectively, and corresponding PE of 22.78, 14.96, and 10.67, respectively. The company was given a target price of 15 yuan for 3 months to maintain the company's “highly recommended” rating. Risk warning: The controlling shareholder is not acting vigorously enough, and the progress of the project is slower than expected.

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