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龙建股份(600853)点评:潜龙或跃 订单保障业绩、国改及区域战略带来预期

Longjian shares (600853) comments: Qianlong or Yue order guarantee performance, national reform and regional strategy bring expectations

長江證券 ·  Dec 3, 2015 00:00  · Researches

Event description

The company and its wholly-owned subsidiaries won the bid for several sections of the Bei'an-Fu expressway construction project, with a total amount of 3.005 billion yuan and a construction period of 36 months. The company plans to work with the Transportation Bureau of Tangshan City, Hebei Province and the people's Government of Luanxian County, Hebei Province to implement the project from Luanzhou to Qingtuo Ying Section of Chicao Line in PPP mode, with a scale of 2.441 billion yuan, and the company plans to invest 561 million yuan.

Event comment

The order stock is abundant, and the trial PPP opens the future increment: the company has repeatedly won big orders. At present, the total amount of bid for the construction of several sections of the Bei'an to Fu Expressway is 3.005 billion yuan, which is 53.94% of the annual income last year. In addition, the order situation of the company this year is good, and the company strives to develop business outside the province while actively developing business outside the province. The projects of foreign and foreign construction in Heilongjiang Province and the projects that have won the bid have increased greatly compared with the same period last year. It provides a sufficient guarantee for future performance. In addition, the proposed cooperation with the Luanxian government also indicates that the company will enter the PPP project, and the experience of this project can be copied to the PPP transportation project in the province and even the three eastern provinces, rapidly expand the scale of business, contribute to performance and bring stable income at the same time.

Plate scarcity, benefit from the strategic construction of "revitalizing the Northeast": speeding up the transformation and upgrading of the economic structure of the Northeast has been raised to the height of national strategy. Under the policy of revitalizing the economy, it will not only accelerate the adjustment of the industrial structure and industrial upgrading in the region, but also further increase investment in transportation, water conservancy and other public infrastructure projects. The company, located in Heilongjiang Province, is the only construction sector A-share mark in Northeast China, which is scarce, and is expected to benefit with increased policy support and increased attention to revitalizing the Northeast.

Backed by the provincial construction group, with the expectation of the reform of state-owned enterprises: under the background of the acceleration of the reform of state-owned enterprises, the company has a strong expectation of the reform of state-owned enterprises. At present, the controlling shareholder is Heilongjiang Construction Group, accounting for 33.34% of the total share capital. The group has construction group, design institute and other assets, of which Longjian Road and Bridge is the only listing platform under the group. At present, the market capitalization of 3.8 billion has the attribute of a small company and a large group. There is a huge space for the reform of state-owned enterprises. Risk hint: there is uncertainty in the implementation and income of the PPP project, and the company needs more funds to carry out its business. It is estimated that the company's EPS in 2015 and 2016 will be 0.04 yuan and 0.08 yuan respectively, with a "buy" rating corresponding to PE173 and 94.

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