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达安基因(002030)

恆泰證券 ·  Nov 11, 2015 00:00  · Researches

1. Company Overview: The company is currently a leading enterprise in the domestic molecular diagnosis industry chain layout. From a vertical perspective, the company's business covers the entire molecular diagnosis industry chain, including the development of upstream raw materials, the production and sale of midstream molecular diagnostic instruments and reagents, and downstream independent medical laboratory testing services; from a horizontal perspective, the company's product line has been improved, covering various technical platforms including PCR, genetic chips, and second-generation sequencing. Through the horizontal and vertical integration layout, the company's leading edge in the field of molecular diagnostics is quite obvious. 2. Company highlights: The full liberalization of the first and two-child policy favors non-invasive obstetrics testing. The Fifth Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee proposed promoting balanced population development, adhering to the basic national policy of family planning, improving the population development strategy, fully implementing the policy that a couple can have two children, and actively carrying out actions to deal with population aging, marking the full liberalization of the two-child policy. Currently, the two-child policy has been included in the 13th Five-Year Plan. According to estimates, out of the 140 million married women of childbearing age who have given birth to one child at present, there are more than 50 million who can have two children according to the current fertility policy. According to the survey, the average number of ideal children for married people aged 20-44 is 1.93. It is estimated that after the implementation of the policy, the number of births will increase markedly in the short term, and fertility levels will pick up somewhat. The two new children are mainly concentrated in towns, accounting for 76% of the total number of new births. Among mothers considering having a second child, the proportion of women aged 30-35 is 29%, and the proportion of women aged 35 and over has reached 23%. Elderly high-risk pregnant women and improved medical conditions in urban areas have brought benefits to prenatal screening. At the beginning of 2014, the country halted adjustments to the gene sequencing industry. In November 2014, the company's fetal chromosomal aneuploidy 21 trisomy, 18 trisomy, and 13 physical examination kits (semiconductor sequencing) and gene sequencing sequencer products obtained medical device registration certificates, becoming the second manufacturer with instrument and reagent registration certificates after Huada University. In January 2015, the Health Planning Commission announced a list of 109 pilot hospitals. Second-generation sequencing was particularly beneficial for non-invasive prenatal testing. 2. The company plans to expand its fluorescence PCR product line through a non-public offering to raise 1.5 billion yuan in capital, with a fixed price increase of 32.38 yuan/share. The issuance volume is 46.324,400 shares. The lockdown period is 3 years, and the issuance target is the company's internal executives and employees. The fixed increase in all internal digestion shows confidence in the company's future development. Fund-raising projects include the expansion of the fluorescence PCR product line. The company is a leader in the field of clinical PCR in China. It is the first manufacturer in China to use fluorescence probe PCR technology to develop nucleic acid detection reagents. It is the first to obtain a fluorescence quantitative PCR registration certificate issued by the state, and is used for virus typing and quantitative testing. The company's PCR preparation products have a market share of about 60% in the country. In recent years, the IVD industry in which the company is located has developed relatively rapidly, and the growth rate has remained around 15%. Among them, the growth rate of immunological diagnosis is around 20%, while the growth rate of molecular diagnostics is faster. Fluorescence PCR is currently the company's main source of profit, and this product line expansion will increase the company's profitability. 3. Investment suggestions: The company's EPS for 2015 and 2016 is expected to be 0.24 yuan and 0.31 yuan respectively, and the stock price as of November 10, 2015 is 46.74 yuan, which is 195 times the corresponding PE in 2015. Genetic sequencing is a key area of focus in the capital market, and companies, as one of the targets, are expected to enjoy favorable policies and capital appeal. 4. Risk warning: There is no risk of a significant increase in the profitability of independent laboratories.

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