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湖南发展(000722)深度报告:“湘雅模式”可复制性强 成长空间广阔

國海證券 ·  Nov 26, 2015 00:00  · Researches

Key investment points: The only listing platform for state-owned holding groups, mainly engaged in hydropower business. The largest shareholder of the company is Hunan Development Asset Management Group Co., Ltd., the actual controller is the Hunan Provincial People's Government, and the company is the only listed company under the controlling shareholder. It is mainly engaged in the hydropower business, and the main business is relatively stable. The development prospects of the laid out rehabilitation industry continue to improve. Rehabilitation programs have begun to be continuously included in the scope of medical insurance coverage, which will release rehabilitation needs; eliminating the use of medicinal medicine and implementing multi-point practice will show the value of rehabilitation medical treatment and increase the mobility of doctors' resources, greatly alleviating the supply-side dilemma of rehabilitation personnel; medical insurance fee control and hierarchical diagnosis and treatment will improve the ecological environment for rehabilitation; and changes in the spectrum of diseases brought about by the aging population will spawn rehabilitation needs. The Xiangya Pok Oi Rehabilitation Hospital gathers advantages from various sources to create the “Xiangya Model.” By connecting with the Xiangya Hospital and undertaking government purchases, the Xiangya Pok Oi Rehabilitation Hospital solved the initial disease source problem, and adopted an asset-light model of leasing some properties to quickly recover investment capital. The “Xiangya model” has unique advantages. The “Xiangya Model” is expected to be replicated throughout the province. The company plans to complete the layout of rehabilitation hospitals at the municipal level in mainland Hunan Province within 3-5 years. Director Zhou Jianglin's rehabilitation industry resources, good cooperation with general hospitals, and state-owned background resources form the unique advantages of the “Xiangya Model”, which is a strong guarantee for the success of the promotion of the “Xiangya Model” throughout Hunan Province. The Xiangxi and Changde Pok Oi Rehabilitation Hospitals are expected to open within this year. Profit forecasts and investment ratings. The company's main hydropower business operates stably and has abundant cash flow. The rehabilitation medical industry environment continues to improve, expanding the opportunities for rapid industry growth brought about by expectations of the scope of medical insurance payments, hierarchical medical insurance fee control, and population aging. The “Xiangya Model” of the Changsha Pok Oi Rehabilitation Hospital has solved problems such as the origin of patients, and has adopted an asset-light model of some leased properties, with a short recovery cycle. At the same time, the “Xiangya Model” is replicative. With Director Zhou Jianglin's industry resources+the company's state-owned holding background, the company cooperated well with general hospitals to form a strong guarantee for the successful promotion of the “Xiangya Model” in Hunan. Optimistic about the development of the company's layout in the rehabilitation field, we expect the company's EPS from 2015 to 2017 to be 0.35 yuan, 0.40 yuan, and 0.44 yuan, respectively. The corresponding price-earnings ratio valuations are 63 times, 55 times, and 50 times, respectively. For the first time, coverage is given a “buy” level. Risk warning: 1) The development of the rehabilitation medical industry falls short of expectations; 2) the rehabilitation hospital construction project is not progressing as expected; 3) the continuing cooperation with Xiangya Hospital is uncertain; 4) the performance of the hydropower business is uncertain; 5) the business model is not replicable.

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