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香江控股(600162)深度报告:整装重发的香江号巨轮

長江證券 ·  Nov 30, 2015 00:00  · Researches

Key points of the report Real estate development is progressing steadily, and the group industry urgently needs to integrate the continuous revenue growth of listed companies' real estate development business to provide stable performance guarantees for listed companies. Although affected by the urban layout, the growth of development business is limited to a certain extent, core projects can still provide a stable profit guarantee for the company. At the same time, the company's majority shareholder, the business layout of the company's largest shareholder, is widely distributed in the six major fields of household trade, commercial logistics, real estate development, energy resources, financial holdings, and health and leisure, but its internal synergy has not been achieved. In order to further consolidate resources, the majority shareholders injected a series of high-quality assets into listed companies in advance this year. The aim is to reintegrate and sort out the group's internal assets based on listed companies. By injecting assets into Dongfeng, becoming a commercial and trade industry chain platform listed company is the only listed platform under the Xiangjiang Group, and it is also an important vehicle for future Group business integration. Taking advantage of the majority shareholders' asset injections this year, the company has achieved full business coverage in the upper and middle reaches of the home furnishing trade industry chain: from upstream trading platform development to midstream investment and operation, listed companies all have business layouts. Furthermore, starting with the Nanling Trade City project in Changsha, the company also hopes to change the scope of commercial business from a single home furnishing trade to full-format commerce; at the same time, further expand the business chain downstream. While helping merchants and customers expand their business scale and grow their stores, it also helps listed companies achieve a two-level leap forward transformation from real estate developers to home furnishing traders and platform traders in the trade industry chain. Since industry policy, group support, and equity incentives helped the company take off into 2015, the company's favorable factors continued to be superimposed. At the industry level, the country has continuously introduced various real estate stimulus policies, which have boosted sales recovery in the real estate market, which not only helps the company quickly eliminate inventory and return capital, but also helps the company to accelerate the implementation of its real estate strategy; at the level of majority shareholders, this year's two asset injections officially kicked off the integration of the group's internal business chain. Once successful, it will provide a paradigm for the subsequent further business integration of the Xiangjiang Group. At the same time, the company also introduced an equity incentive plan for the first time this year, which will bind the interests of listed companies and management. This will also further drive the company to achieve management efficiency. upgrade. The value is undervalued, and the potential can be expected. After the first round of asset injection, we comprehensively calculated that a reasonable market revaluation of the company's three assets (original real estate business+Xiangjiang commercial+Shenzhen base operation) should be at least 15 billion yuan, corresponding to the company's current market price discount of nearly 36%. The company's 15-16 EPS is expected to be 0.43 yuan/share and 0.5 yuan/share, respectively, and PE corresponding to the current stock price will be 19 and 16 times, respectively, maintaining the purchase rating. Risk Warning: Asset consolidation and business transformation fall short of expectations

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