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湖南发展(000722)深度报告:进军大健康领域 主攻康 复医疗连锁和养老服务

中投證券 ·  Nov 20, 2015 00:00  · Researches

After backing up, the company actively sought a second main business, finally chose the big health industry, and moved in from rehabilitation medicine and health care to the elderly. Currently, in terms of rehabilitation medicine, the layout of the rehabilitation medical network is being carried out steadily throughout the province; in terms of old-age care, the first project, Yichuanhua Health City, has been launched, and various tasks are progressing in an orderly manner. The basic structure of the company's business has been completed, and it will enter a period of rapid expansion in the future. Key investment points: Rehabilitation Medicine: Using the Xiangya Pok Oi Rehabilitation Hospital as a model, we will rapidly promote the chain layout of rehabilitation medicine throughout the province. China's rehabilitation medical industry has high market demand, but supply resources are insufficient. The company quickly entered the field of rehabilitation medicine through cooperation with Zhou Jianglin. Director Zhou Jianglin is an authority in the field of rehabilitation medicine. His rich industry resources are expected to accelerate the expansion of the “Xiangya Model”. He has signed performance promises that the net profit of Pok Oi Medical and other related entities in 15-17 will not be less than 16, 18, or 20 million yuan. The asset-light operation goes hand in hand with the construction of a new hospital. It has now been announced that it will invest in the establishment of a children's rehabilitation hospital in Changsha and set up rehabilitation branches in Changde and Xiangxi. Through the rehabilitation hospital chain, the market competitive advantage of the rehabilitation medical industry in the Hunan region was quickly formed. Health and Elderly Care: The layout is early. The first project has already been launched. It is expected that the first project, Chunhua Health City, will continue to invest in high-quality health and pension projects in the future to create a high-end health and pension demonstration zone integrating six major functions, including “high-end physical examination, high-end medical care, active pension, health and wellness, ecological vacation, and creative entertainment”, with an estimated total investment of about 9.7 billion yuan. Using the Chunhua Health City project as a starting point, the company has achieved a good start in the field of health and old-age care, and is expected to continue to invest in high-quality health and old-age care projects. Hydropower: The steady development of the business brings continuous and stable cash flow to the company. The company's hydropower business has a good foundation, and the installed capacity of the wholly-owned, controlled and shareholding power plants has reached 220,000 kilowatts. The excellent hydropower management team continuously optimizes the management of existing hydropower assets, and the hydropower business performance is good. Covered for the first time, giving it a “Highly Recommended” rating. The company's original main business, hydropower, and the second main business, health care (focusing on rehabilitation and health care), have a clear and reasonable layout. The basic structure of each business has been completed, and the future will enter a period of rapid expansion. As the only listing platform under the Hunan Development Asset Management Group, it may benefit from the acceleration of the reform process of state-owned enterprises in Hunan. The estimated net profit for 15-17 is 1.50, 1.63, and 178 million, EPS is 0.32, 0.35, and 0.38 yuan/share, respectively. The PE corresponding to the current stock price is 65, 60, and 55 times, respectively. Risk warning: risk of shortage of professionals in external expansion, risk of poor coordination of health insurance payment policies in prefecture-level cities limiting the growth of rehabilitation medical business, risk of uncertainty in the later stages of the Chunhua Health City project

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